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Saturday, December 26, 2015

Winter Weather Watch - Winter Storm "Goliath"

Time For An Update
First, while I have your attention, please heed any Flash Flood and Flood Watches or Warnings that are issued in the next 12-24 hours regarding all the rain we've received today.

Second, our team expects the Snow and Ice totals referenced below by NWS Kansas City and WeatherBell to change somewhat between now and when everything is all said and done. We'll try to keep you updated, though.

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The following Watch information was issued by NWS Kansas City and edited by our team for clarity.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED 202 PM CST, SAT, DEC 26 2015
Kansas Counties:
ATCHISON, MIAMI, LINN, DONIPHAN, LEAVENWORTH, WYANDOTTE, JOHNSON
Missouri Counties:
ATCHISON, NODAWAY, WORTH, GENTRY, HARRISON, MERCER, PUTNAM, SCHUYLER, HOLT, ANDREW, DE KALB, DAVIESS, GRUNDY, SULLIVAN, BUCHANAN, CLINTON, CALDWELL, LIVINGSTON, PLATTE, CLAY, RAY, JACKSON
Including the Following Cities:
ATCHISON, PAOLA, MOUND CITY, TROY,  LEAVENWORTH, KANSAS CITY KS, OVERLAND PARK, OLATHE, TARKIO,  ROCKPORT, MARYVILLE, GRANT CITY, ALBANY, STANBERRY,  BETHANY, PRINCETON, UNIONVILLE, LANCASTER, DOWNING, OREGON,  SAVANNAH, CAMERON, GALLATIN, JAMESPORT, TRENTON, MILAN, GREEN CITY, ST. JOSEPH, PLATTSBURG, KINGSTON, HAMILTON,  POLO, CHILLICOTHE, PARKVILLE, PLATTE CITY, WESTON, LIBERTY, EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, RICHMOND, KANSAS CITY, INDEPENDENCE
Specific Information:
202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.
* THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

Precautionary / Preparedness Actions:
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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HIRES GFS 00Z Run from Today [Total Snow by 12 AM, Dec 29]
Image Credit: WeatherBell.com


HIRES GFS 00Z Run from Today [Total Ice by 12 AM, Dec 29]
Image Credit: HazWx.com




NAM 4KM 00Z Run from Today [Total Snow by 12 AM, Dec 29]
Image Credit: WeatherBell.com



NAM 4KM 00Z Run from Today [Total Iceby 12 AM, Dec 29]
Image Credit: HazWx.com

TL;DR
- We expect snow to start overnight Sunday into Monday, any time around or after 12 AM / Midnight.
- Snow totals look like they could be anywhere from a few to 10"
- Ice is a possibility

Please pass this along to anyone else you think might benefit from this information!

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team

Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
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Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Holiday Travel and a Look Ahead

Dangerous Today

Today's blog is a last minute, up-to-date forecast for those of you traveling around the US over the next week. If you're traveling anywhere near the Mississippi River in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, or Arkansas, I urge great caution today (Wednesday, Dec. 22).

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk (red) with a chance to see Significant Severe weather, specifically Damaging Wind and Tornadoes. Here are the graphics for today.

Categorical Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Tornado Outlook
Image Credit: NWS SPC

Damaging Wind Outlook
Image Credit: NWS SPC

Hail Outlook
Image Credit: NWS SPC
Other Weather Today
Aside from the major Storm system shown above, there's also quite a bit of morning Fog hanging on out near New York City, causing quite a few delays for airlines.

There's also continued snow in the Western half of the U.S., mostly at higher elevations, but also across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Here's a look.

Snowfall from Now to 12 AM, Dec. 24
Image Credit: WeatherBell
More Snow Chances that include Kansas City
Lastly, for those looking to do some travel back after Christmas but before the New Year, additional Snow is looking possible. Snow is a fickle type of precipitation though, so don't hold your breath if this changes drastically between now and Tuesday, but the trends have been decently consistent so far. Here's what this morning's model run looks like.

Total Snowfall from Now to 12AM, Dec 29
Image Credit: WeatherBell

If Traveling, Go Safely
In conclusion, if you're traveling in the Mississippi valley region today, PLEASE stay on top of the weather. There have already been a half-dozen or more Tornado Warnings, and several ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Travel later this week looks rainy for many states in the southern half of the U.S., and Snowy in the Mountains, parts of the Southwestern states up through the Midwest, and on into the North and Northeast.

Check the forecast, and check it often! Check it where you are, for the trip along your travel route, and at for what's in store at your destination.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team

Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies