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Tuesday, December 23, 2014

A White Christmas?

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Looks like there's slight chance that the area could have a White Christmas, and that means travel could be impacted somewhat. With that, I wanted to get this out as I'm sure some of you will be (or already are) traveling today. This is a very brief update, so be sure to read ahead.

Regional Estimated Snow Totals through 12-24-2014
Image Credit: NWS Kansas City. For the Full PDF, click the image above.

The only thing that I may update you fine folks on is an upcoming blast of Arctic cold across the next couple of weeks. Here's a sneak peek at that:
Image Credit: Twitter, @glezak

Keep your eyes on your e-mail, Blog, and social media for more on that to come...

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Update 3 - Now a Winter Weather Advisory

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Before we jump into any updates, I want to reiterate that we are officially under a Winter Weather Advisory from NWS Kansas City until 9 AM tomorrow morning.

Image Credit: NOAA NWS Kansas City


LOTS OF POSSIBILITIES

Alright everyone, today and tomorrow are the days we're supposed to definitely get a bit of snow. Unfortunately, the models are all over the place as to how much we're going go get, but I'll try to make some semblance of order as we go through this update. Hold on, though, as this post is going to be pretty graphic. What? I just mean lots of pictures!

Here's What We Know

It's pretty certain that, regardless of how much we do not know, we're going to get snow; period. Right now, I'd be willing to say with confidence that most of the Kansas City metro should see at least 1" of Snow, which is enough to put a little blanket of white on everything. Along with that, the timing of the Snow is likely going to be after 6 PM, and even more likely after 9 PM tonight. The snow looks like it should end by about day break tomorrow.

That means that the roads could be a bit of a mess if you're out driving tonight, and even more so for the AM commuters tomorrow. PLEASE, and I really mean this with sincerity, drive carefully. Turn your lights on, have your windows scraped completely (not just a little peep-hole) before pulling out of the driveway. Make sure you've got a little winter emergency kit in your car in case you get stranded / have an accident. Check that your de-icing / windshield washer fluid isn't too low.

And Here's What We Don't Know

Essentially, we just don't know how much will fall. As I alluded to earlier, the models just aren't playing nicely with each other. I wish I could be more accurate, but at that's how meteorology goes. For those of you that want to see just how different things are looking. So here's those graphics I promised.

The first 2 graphics are from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center depicting what they think our region's Snow accumulations look like over the next 24 Hours (6AM 12/17 - 6AM 12/18). The 3rd graphic is also from NOAA SPC, but is a Plume Graph showing all the model runs for Snow accumulation for Kansas City's immediate area.
Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center
Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center
The average model run is trending just over 3" of Snow accumulation.
Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center
The next set of images are from a website called WeatherBell. They highlight the model runs for the NCEP GFS, NAM 12 KM and NAM 4 KM runs, respectively.

NCEP GFS
Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
NAM 12 KM
Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
NAM 4 KM
Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
CONFUSED YET?

If you're confused, don't worry! We know we're going to get snow. Count on it happening between sun-down and sun-up. Just make sure you have what you need, or get it on your drive home after work today. This isn't going to be a "Snowpocalypse", so relax! Here's some great driving tips from NWS Kansas City.


Questions / Comments / Concerns? Just let me know! If you're an e-mail subscriber, just reply to this e-mail; if you're on the Blog, you can comment below the article; or if you're on social media, comment as per that platform dictates.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Update 2: Weather FYI for Snow Event

SOME CHANGES

I hope that everyone gets a chance to read this sooner rather than later, as the information is a bit time-sensitive this time around. Before diving into this, please know that things can definitely still change, but I'd rather act on this information to give you all the biggest possible heads up I can. (Sorry, I feel like I always have to put a disclaimer with any predictions outside of same-day posts.)

A Change in Timing: Basically, we're looking at a majority of any precipitation we may receive to fall on Thursday, 12/18. This is a bit earlier than I had originally told you all about, as we were looking at dates between 12/19 and 12/21.

A Change in Snow Totals: This is the second biggest change, and probably the one with the most impact for folks. As you'll see in the graphics coming up below, you'll see that we're slated for about 3.5" - 4" of Snow (at the time of writing) for the Kansas City metro, and about 2" - 3" for more outlying areas.

GRAPHICS BY DATE

I'm going to break this down as a day-by-day image to show how the Snow is currently forecast to impact our region. Note that as the date changes, the resolution is a little lower. That means it's not as precise; kind of like a fine point pen versus a general brush stroke.

Thursday Evening
NAM 4KM Run from 12 AM 12/16/14 showing Total Snow through 6 PM on Thursday, 12/18/14 | Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
Friday Evening
NAM 12KM Run from 12 AM 12/16/14 showing Total Snow through 6 PM on Friday, 12/19/14 | Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
Saturday Overnight into Sunday
NCEP GFS Run from 12 AM 12/16/14 showing Total Snow through 12 AM Sunday, 12/21/14 | Image Credit: WeatherBell.com
Saturday Overnight into Sunday, Regional View
HR GFS run from 12 AM 12/16/14 showing Total Snow through 12 AM Sunday, 12/21/14 | Image Credit: HazWx.com

A FINAL NOTE

So there you have it. That's the most complete and fully up-to-date information I can give you. Will things change? Probably. How much? Not sure. But if you stay tuned to tomorrow's update, I'll let you know everything I know. Just make sure you have what you need, should the weather get snowy out there. Being stuck in a stranded car is no fun, and should you run out of gas, can become dangerous, and quickly, especially with the temperatures we'll be encountering the next several days.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Monday, December 15, 2014

Update 1: Weather FYI

A Brief Update

Good news, for those of you that don't care for snow, but bad news for anyone hoping for a White Christmas. It seems that over the last 24 hours, models indicate strong Eastward push to the Snow that might have impacted our area otherwise. Here's 2 different looks at what I'm seeing.

Image credit: InstantWeatherMaps.com

Image Credit: WeatherBell.com

Don't Be Too Hasty

We're still a handful days out though, so let's not call it completely off yet. As most of you are very aware, the weather here in Kansas City is prone being fairly unpredictable! I'll continue to monitor the weather models and put out updates as needed. The better informed you are, the better decisions you can make.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Weather FYI - Possible Snow Event for Midwest

I'm sure some folks are still up at this hour, but likely not perusing the latest weather models like myself and a handful of other weather geeks out there. Joking aside, I wanted to bring some information to your attention that you're probably not going to hear from other news stations for at least a couple of days. That "thing" is a possible moderate snow on the 19th / 20th of about 4"-5" (at the time of writing).

While I understand why local news stations that pride themselves on accuracy don't want to be talking about possibilities, I for one would like to make people aware of things with as much realistic lead time as possible. This way, people can make the best educated decision about how to deal with such an event, and so they have time to prepare for it. If it doesn't happen, great! But wouldn't it be better to have all of one's proverbial Ducks in a row before things get messy out there on the roads? I think so...

DISCLAIMER: Before you look at the graphic below, please note that this could completely change (for better or worse) by the 19th / 20th.

Image credited to InstantWeatherMaps.com

What should you do with this information? Well, I'm not a meteorologist, so I'm not issuing an Advisory, Watch, or Warning. But I'm calling this a Weather FYI (my wife gets the credit for coining it). Yep; it's just here For Your Information. Maybe you want to review your family's plan for being snowed in for a day, or your plan on what to do if you lose power during winter weather snap? Maybe you'll go buy an extra package of bottled water and a couple non-perishable food things to have around just in case, or perhaps you just want to file this away in your head for later use? All of the above are good ideas, and that's the purpose of this Weather FYI; to get people to stop for a moment and think, "Hmm, what if...?"

So there it is. Kansas City and most of West Central Missouri is slated for about 4" of Snow as of this particular model run. Stay tuned to this Blog though, so that you can be sure to stay on the up-and-up of how this system's forecast will change!

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Monday, December 8, 2014

Weather Warnings and How the Public Responds

Hello again! I recently watched a re-run of an episode of Weather Geeks on The Weather Channel, hosted by Dr. Marshall Shepherd, with guest James Spann of ABC 33/40 in Alabama. [Find them on Facebook or Twitter.] The episode was titled "Anatomy of a Tornado Outbreak". It covered information on a level that I felt would shed light on some of the problems the meteorological and weather community face. Hopefully you all find this information helpful and enlightening!

Radar
Of the many topics covered, radar imagery was the first presented by Dr. Shepherd. While speaking about the 2011 Tornado Outbreak in Alabama (April 25-28) where there were 62 confirmed Tornadoes across the state, Dr. Shepherd showed Spann's coverage with his station. Dr. Shepherd asked James what he thought was the reason that, even though the National Weather Service had forecast the event very well, the general population didn't seem to take proper precautions and thus a total of 238 deaths across Alabama alone.

Regarding the general public's perception and sense of urgency of radar imagery, Spann had this to say, "As strong as we try to communicate that, people see a bucket of spilled paint. We have to be better in the broadcasting world of getting cameras on Tornadoes. They will respond to that."

Spann continued by saying that he believes that if people can see a tornado during live coverage, it will carry more impact to how viewers and the general population respond to Warnings. He went on to say, "Based on research we've seen, people don't understand Storm-based Warnings; polygon Warnings. We got a problem. We don't warn by county!" ... "Tornadoes are small, and counties are huge."

I entirely agree that one of the biggest problems with the majority of Watches & Warnings are that they are sent out based on County, and not the polygon issued by the NWS. This isn't always the case, but definitely is more often than not. Spann concluded this segment of the show with these major bullet points; "We have to get more cameras on tornadoes; we have to quit showing as much radar." ... "And we have to communicate effectively."

As the show went on, Dr. Shepherd and Span talked about some of the lessons learned from the 2011 Tornado Outbreak as a whole, and shared some stories and work they had both done since then, along with other meteorologists, researchers, and meteorological groups. And then came the topic of how the general public receives weather Watches & Warnings when they are not at their home and able to watch local or national weather coverage for their area.

Public Situational Awareness of Weather
Both the host, Dr. Shepherd, and his guest, James Spann were eager to discuss their thoughts on how to keep the public informed about current weather Watches & Warnings when they can't be in front of a TV. Right off the bat, Dr. Shepherd mentioned Weather Radios. Spann jumped on the topic with enthusiasm saying, "The base line: It's a Weather Radio. Is it new technology? No. But it works! It works very well. Every home in a Tornado-prone market should have one."

Along the same note, Dr. Shepherd talked adamantly about how, to them, they could care less if "Joe Q. Public" watches their own weather broadcast, but rather that people stay Weather Aware, regardless of where they are. And THAT, my friends is the mark of what a meteorologist's job really entails. They don't care about their ratings; they just want to help people make the best and most timely decision to protect lives & property. Spann mentioned, "We think people should have two layers; two ways if getting a Warning, because anything could fail. Weather Radio could fail. The Smart Phone Apps are marvelous because they know where you are... So Weather Radio, Smart Phone App; those are the two layers that people should have."

I thought it was great that Dr. Shepherd and Spann spoke about Smart Phone Apps, if only for a couple of minutes, but I want to touch on a point they didn't have time to delve into. The point is this... Don't get overwhelmed by the sheer volume of available apps on your respective Smart Phone's app market. Here are my tips to you when trying to pick an app that's right for your weather needs:
1) Sort the results by popularity. Chances are, if it has hundreds of thousands (or millions) of downloads, it's probably got some decent features.
2) Make sure that the app you've picked from the popular list has a majority of 4 and 5 star reviews. If it's got 3 Stars or less, I would suggest trying another one. Just head back to Step 1.
3) Once you've found an app that looks like it's got good reviews, download it and open it up. Sometimes the apps require you to setup your location, or enable GPS. The GPS function is the absolute most important feature that makes the Smart Phone Apps potentially life-saving. Regardless of how staunch you may be with your privacy, I urge you to consider turning on the GPS function of your Weather App.
4) Now that you've got your app setup, give it a trial run for a handful of days. Check out how it notifies you, what it does and does not do, how easy the interface is to navigate through. If you find all the information you need and aren't being bombarded by ads, you've probably got a decent Weather App.
5) When in doubt, throw the old app out. When you do, just start back up at Step 1 to find another one that works better for you!

You might be asking yourself, "But why would I need a Smart Phone App when I already get information from Facebook / Twitter / etc?" As mentioned earlier by Spann, things fail. It's always good to have a backup. Sometimes social media updates can get 'stuck' out in the internet and not hit your phone immediately. That's why having GPS driven text-based alerts from a Smart Phone App can work brilliantly. They often require a lot less bandwidth to receive the notification and therefore are more likely to get to you immediately after being issued by the National Weather Service.

Others of you might be saying, "Well I'll just hear a siren if there's a Warning." I, along with many other 'weather people', will flat out tell you that this is, by far, one of the biggest mistakes someone can make when it comes to being weather aware. Here's what Spann had to say on, what is known in weather circles as, 'siren mentality', "You could spend one trillion dollars and still cover a fraction of the land that we serve in tornado-prone markets." Dr. Shepherd and Span go on to talk about how difficult it can be to hear warning sirens inside buildings, in your car, at school, at the gym, even outside. Spann even warned that, "If your family thinks they are going to hear a siren, you've got a problem!" This is why it is so important to have multiple ways of staying up-to-date on what's going on, especially on days that are expected to produce severe weather of any type.

James Spann's Challenge to Everyone
At the end of Weather Geeks, Spann issued a personal challenge to everyone, especially the 'Weather Geeks' out there. "This is your challenge: If you're a Geek watching this show [or in this case, reading this Blog], you tell you friends and your neighbors 'Weather Radio; Smart Phone App!" There it is. Get out there, get people on board with getting a Weather Radio and a Smart Phone App. But not JUST getting a Weather Radio or Smart Phone App, but taking the time to set them up, correctly!

My Personal Plea
If you or someone you know is struggling to setup a Weather Radio or finding and using a good Smart Phone App, send them my way. No, I'm not kidding. My team, Twisted Skies, is built around the same principles and ideals of other weather agencies: protecting life and property. If any help is needed, shoot me an e-mail or social media, or even leave a comment on this Blog. I'll do what I can to help get people on top of being weather aware, and in-the-know.

Personal E-mail - justin.t.gann@gmail.com
Personal Twitter - @JustinTGann
Twisted Skies on Facebook
Twisted Skies on Twitter

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Final Update for this Wintry Weekend

Alrighty folks,

Sorry I'm a little later than I anticipated! Looks like we're not going to get a very solid answer, as is the case most of the time for Winter Weather forecasting. However, here's how things are trending in the world of forecast models.

Quick Technical Note: All images & any captions should now be clickable links to take you to the page source. I know this Blog sometimes shrinks pictures & text down a little small to be able to see everything. Hope that helps going forward!

Local Meteorologists sometimes just don't agree...

KMBC Chief Meteorologist is thinking about 2" will stick for most of the KC Metro
41 Action News Chief Meteorologist Gary Lezak thinks we'll see > 1" of Snow for most of the KC Metro
Joe Lauria of FOX 4 KC seems to think we're in the < 1" of Snow boat as well

So now that we have that confusion out of the way, let's move on to the next set of data from the National Weather Service office for Kansas City. According to their 4 AM update this morning, they believe a lot of folks in the KC Metro will be seeing between 1" - 2".

"Snow will accumulate on roadways making them slick. Slid-Offs and Accidents can be expected."
The Median of the Plume Models has us slated for about 1.5" of total accumulated Snow

And now a look from HazWx's website.

LEFT: NCEP GFS 00Z model run (11/15) for Snow total accumulations through 12 AM Monday, 11/17/2014
RIGHT: NAM 4KM 00Z model run (11/15) for Snow total accumulations through 12 AM Monday, 11/17/2014
Lastly, all the updated model runs from WeatherBELL all agree that we're dodging most of the bullet on this one. Here's one of the 3 nearly identical models from their site.

This is WeatherBELL's (WxBell) NAM 4KM 00Z Run, which matches their other products almost identically (NCEP GFS and NAM 12KM)

That's it for now! Just be sure to be cautions while you're out driving this weekend. Little snow or not, any precipitation on the road is likely to be near or below Freezing. Headlights on, seatbelts buckled, windows scraped... you guys know the drill.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography

Friday, November 14, 2014

A Quick Update that Most People will Like (But not Me!)

Super quick update that I won't bother scrubbing up with graphics: Models have all made a drastic shift showing that the segments of tomorrow's Snow should split around us by quite a distance to the North & South.

In a nutshell, if these newer models hold up, it certainly seems like we'll be at or below 1" of total accumulated Snow.

Will this come to fruition? I'll post one last thorough update before 9 AM tomorrow. We'll see what all the sources say!

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography

Wintry Weekend Weather Update

It's about time for another Weather update on what's supposedly going on this weekend.

The quick summary is that in the last couple model runs have whittle down snow chances a bit. With that, almost the entirety of Snow Accumulation is expected to happen Saturday instead of through the duration of the whole weekend.

Instead of 3", the median of the Plume runs are guessing about 2.5" when all is said and done.

Snow Accumulation Plume Modeling through 6 PM on Monday, 11/17/2014
In addition, our local National Weather Service (NWS) office's 48-Hour Forecast lines up with this very nicely. Some additional good news for those of you that very much dislike Wintry Weather, there's not anything in the forecast for Ice or Sleet accumulations, which is not to say there won't be some icy patches on roads & sidewalks. NOTE: Hard-packed snow can be just as dangerously slick as ice.

48-Hour Forecast from 2 PM 11/14/2014 to 1 PM 11/16/2014

Ahead of this Storm System, NWS Kansas City has issued a Winter Weather Advisory that you should check out. They have also published an updated Decision Support Page product highlighting Snow Accumulations across the region.



I won't bore you today with the NCEP GFS & NAM forecasts since they all relay about the same information, but keep an eye out for one more update tomorrow morning!.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Good afternoon folks,

I'll try to be brief, but the graphics might make this look really long. Biggest changes so far; National Weather Service Kansas City has updated our estimated total accumulations for the area. As it stands, they're thinking that we're going to see in the range of 2"-3" with some very isolated spots closer to 4".

Here's a clickable Hour-by-Hour Snow Total that KMBC (Channel 9) posted a little while earlier today, just click the arrows to the right of the current image to scroll forward into time.

Next up is the overview forecast for the next handful of days:
  • Rest Of Today
    Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
  • Tonight
    Mostly clear. Lows around 14. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.
  • Friday
    Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds.
  • Friday Night
    Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Temperatures steady after midnight. Light and variable winds.
  • Saturday
    Cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Moderate snow accumulations. Highs around 30. Temperatures steady in the afternoon. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
  • Saturday Night
    Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows around 20.
  • Sunday
    Considerable cloudiness in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s.
  • Sunday Night
    Partly cloudy. Lows around 15.
  • Monday Through Tuesday
    Mostly clear. Bitterly cold. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows around 8.
Next, some graphics from the NWS KC Decision Support Page (also attached as a PDF with full details.

Expected Snow Totals through Sunday

Expected Snow Chances on Saturday

48-Hour Forecast Data from 12 AM Saturday through 11 PM Sunday

Snow Plume Modeling through Noon on Sunday

HazWx: NCEP GFS Model for Estimated Snow Totals through 6PM Sunday


​WxBell: NCEP Hi Res GFS Estimated Snow Totals through 6PM Sunday

If you take nothing else away from this update, take this... Current models have been ramping up the total accumulations ever so slightly each run, but it still looks like, from my estimates, most of the KC Metro & surrounding areas (50 mile radius) should see about 3" of Snow by the end of Sunday.

As always, if things change, I'll be sure to let you know. Stay tuned!

--
Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography