Winter Weather Watch - Winter Storm "Goliath"

Time For An Update
First, while I have your attention, please heed any Flash Flood and Flood Watches or Warnings that are issued in the next 12-24 hours regarding all the rain we've received today.

Second, our team expects the Snow and Ice totals referenced below by NWS Kansas City and WeatherBell to change somewhat between now and when everything is all said and done. We'll try to keep you updated, though.

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The following Watch information was issued by NWS Kansas City and edited by our team for clarity.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

ISSUED 202 PM CST, SAT, DEC 26 2015

Kansas Counties:
ATCHISON, MIAMI, LINN, DONIPHAN, LEAVENWORTH, WYANDOTTE, JOHNSON

Missouri Counties:
ATCHISON, NODAWAY, WORTH, GENTRY, HARRISON, MERCER, PUTNAM, SCHUYLER, HOLT, ANDREW, DE KALB, DAVIESS, GRUNDY, SULLIVAN, BUCHANAN, CLINTON, CALDWELL, LIVINGSTON, PLATTE, CLAY, RAY, JACKSON

Including the Following Cities:
ATCHISON, PAOLA, MOUND CITY, TROY,  LEAVENWORTH, KANSAS CITY KS, OVERLAND PARK, OLATHE, TARKIO,  ROCKPORT, MARYVILLE, GRANT CITY, ALBANY, STANBERRY,  BETHANY, PRINCETON, UNIONVILLE, LANCASTER, DOWNING, OREGON,  SAVANNAH, CAMERON, GALLATIN, JAMESPORT, TRENTON, MILAN, GREEN CITY, ST. JOSEPH, PLATTSBURG, KINGSTON, HAMILTON,  POLO, CHILLICOTHE, PARKVILLE, PLATTE CITY, WESTON, LIBERTY, EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, RICHMOND, KANSAS CITY, INDEPENDENCE

Specific Information:
202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

Precautionary / Preparedness Actions:
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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HIRES GFS 00Z Run from Today [Total Snow by 12 AM, Dec 29]

Image Credit: WeatherBell.com

HIRES GFS 00Z Run from Today [Total Ice by 12 AM, Dec 29]

Image Credit: HazWx.com

NAM 4KM 00Z Run from Today [Total Snow by 12 AM, Dec 29]

Image Credit: WeatherBell.com

NAM 4KM 00Z Run from Today [Total Iceby 12 AM, Dec 29]

Image Credit: HazWx.com

TL;DR
- We expect snow to start overnight Sunday into Monday, any time around or after 12 AM / Midnight.
- Snow totals look like they could be anywhere from a few to 10"
- Ice is a possibility

Please pass this along to anyone else you think might benefit from this information!

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

Holiday Travel and a Look Ahead

Dangerous Today

Today's blog is a last minute, up-to-date forecast for those of you traveling around the US over the next week. If you're traveling anywhere near the Mississippi River in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, or Arkansas, I urge great caution today (Wednesday, Dec. 22).

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk (red) with a chance to see Significant Severe weather, specifically Damaging Wind and Tornadoes. Here are the graphics for today.

Categorical Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Tornado Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Damaging Wind Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Hail Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Other Weather Today
Aside from the major Storm system shown above, there's also quite a bit of morning Fog hanging on out near New York City, causing quite a few delays for airlines.

There's also continued snow in the Western half of the U.S., mostly at higher elevations, but also across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Here's a look.

Snowfall from Now to 12 AM, Dec. 24

Image Credit: WeatherBell

More Snow Chances that include Kansas City
Lastly, for those looking to do some travel back after Christmas but before the New Year, additional Snow is looking possible. Snow is a fickle type of precipitation though, so don't hold your breath if this changes drastically between now and Tuesday, but the trends have been decently consistent so far. Here's what this morning's model run looks like.

Total Snowfall from Now to 12AM, Dec 29

Image Credit: WeatherBell

If Traveling, Go Safely
In conclusion, if you're traveling in the Mississippi valley region today, PLEASE stay on top of the weather. There have already been a half-dozen or more Tornado Warnings, and several ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Travel later this week looks rainy for many states in the southern half of the U.S., and Snowy in the Mountains, parts of the Southwestern states up through the Midwest, and on into the North and Northeast.

Check the forecast, and check it often! Check it where you are, for the trip along your travel route, and at for what's in store at your destination.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

KC Metro on the Edge Today

Keeping it Brief

The Risk to the immediate Kansas City Metro is somewhat contracted today, compared to the forecast from two days ago. That being said, if we do see Severe Weather, the impact could be pretty strong. Expect anything from Severe Winds, to Hail, to even some Tornadoes. We just want to keep things in perspective, so let's dive into the graphics for the whole picture.

UPDATE 1: All the NWS SPC graphics were updated at 11:30 AM
UPDATE 2: Tornado Watches have been issued for a wide area including counties in Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.

DAY 1 Categorical Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

 Wind Alerts

Image Credit: The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel)

Thunderstorm Outlook from 2PM - 6PM

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Wind Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Hail Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Tornado Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC

The Breakdown

Categorical Outlook - The overall chances for places to see any form of Severe Weather.

Wind Alerts - This is a map depicting the various Wind threats around the entire region.
Thunderstorm Outlook - This shows the estimated percent chance of Thunderstorms developing between 2PM - 6PM today.

Wind Outlook - The overall chances to see Severe Winds today.

Hail Outlook - The overall chances to see Severe Hail today.
Tornado Outlook - The overall chances to see Tornadoes of any EF-rating today.

I hope this helps everyone make wise decisions today. If you're planning on heading into Northern Missouri or Southern Iowa, please be extra Weather Aware through the rest of today and overnight tonight.

If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to e-mail, Tweet, or Facebook message us.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

Autumn Storms Ahead?

A Real Autumn for Once
In years past, it seems like we faded from a steamy Summer to a cold Winter in the span of a week or less. But not this year... This year, we're experiencing an actual season. Typically, Autumn is meteorologically much like Spring. With that, there's always the possibility of Severe Weather. So, the fact that we're actually experiencing Autumn coupled with a strong El Niño this year, our chances for bigger weather are somewhat increased compared to recent years.

Why Does this Matter Right Now?
It matters because we're tracking a decent potential for some Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday. We're on the edge of the Slight and Enhanced zones, but things have been shifting around. There isn't a need to panic, but as always, we want our weather followers to be as in-the-know as possible so that you can plan ahead for safety's sake.

NWS SPC Day 3 Categorical Outlook for Wednesday, Nov. 11

Image Credit: NWS SPC

NWS SPC Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook for Wednesday, Nov. 11

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Quick Reminder
Don't forget! Twisted Skies has a GoFundMe up, and we're still hoping to meet our goal before the end of February 2016. If you have a few dollars that you'd be willing to part with, the team would really appreciate it. Thanks for the consideration. Donations taken here: https://www.gofundme.com/TwistedSkiesWx

We'll Keep You Posted
As per usual, things will probably change. As we know, we'll let you know. Keep a watch on our blog, social media, and your e-mail for further updates.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

A Few Summer Thunderstorms

It's Been Too Long

It's been a while! I wanted to take a quick minute to let everyone know that, yes, we're still here, and yes, we're still doing weather things. In fact, we're already gearing up for next season! If you haven't already, please check out our current Go Fund Me campaign: http://www.gofundme.com/TwistedSkiesWx

Onto the Weathera
MONDAY - It's looking like only a small chance to see some Scattered Thunderstorms, and likely nothing severe. Most of the real action should stay a long way out West.

TUESDAY - This is our primary threat for bad weather. Expect to see Severe Thunderstorms with a quoted chance of 60-70% from all of the local media & NWS.

WEDNESDAY - It's looking like there might be a little of Tuesday's Storm complex still rolling through in the very early AM, and then another chance for Non-Severe Showers in the later AM hours. It's also going to feel a lot more like Fall with the cooler air that rolls in behind the preceding Storms. A jacket is probably a good idea for Wednesday morning!

Here's one look at how things might play out Tuesday through Wednesday:

Tuesday, 08/18/15 @ 1 PM (Simulated Radar)

Tuesday, 08/18/15 @ 10 PM (Simulated Radar)

Wednesday, 08/19/15 @ 10 AM (Simulated Radar)

That's all the information we've got at this time. Make sure that if you've got kids in School, they might want an umbrella or rain jacket on Tuesday & Wednesday, but hopefully not today.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

Potential for Severe Wx 07/06/16

Be Weather Aware - Stay Severe Savvy

It's Monday afternoon, the first day of the work week after a nice holiday weekend with amazing weather. Monday looks like it could shape up to be a bit of a drag for many around the KC Metro.

Folks, I know the e-mails and blog posts for upcoming Severe Weather have been sparse, and for that, I apologize. It's been a wacky Spring and now a weird Summer...

That being said, I wanted to let you know that most of the Metro counties are under a Flash Flood Watch starting around 7 PM tonight.Please be sure to check your sump pumps, once again, as we could see a similar storm to those that thundered through the area on 06/26/15.

Along with the potential for Heavy Rains, we have a chance for Damaging Winds. Estimates are upwards of around 70mph gusts. That is right on par with the storms, again, from 06/26/15.

Speaking of, here's a video that I shot while out Storm Spotting that night. Be sure to watch closely a few minutes after the rain starts, as that's when it REALLY picks up! You can even see debris fly by a few times.

Damaging Winds on 6/26/15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhHfmRemjVg

Since the e-mail I sent out around Noon today, the Large Hail threat has been increased for our area. That means, we could see hail >1" possible. You definitely don't want to be out in 70MPH winds anyway, but here's an extra reason to take precautions.

As for the Tornado threat, there's always a very minor possibility of a Tornado with Severe Thunderstorms (like 07/01/15 recently), but at this time, there is not a forecast showing any threats this evening.

DAY 1 Categorical Outlook - Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Damaging Winds Outlook - Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Larg Hail Outlook - Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 1 Tornado Outlook - Image Credit: NWS SPC

Be sure to batten down the proverbial hatches. Hopefully we don't have a repeat of 06/26/15.

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

Mutliple Days of Severe Weather for Mother's Day Weekend

Travelers: Beware
The following information doesn't quite pertain as much to the Kansas City metro as it does areas to the West, South West, and South. But it's still worth taking a quick look at this in case you are planning on traveling this Mother's Day holiday weekend. Already this week, we've had Tornadoes, Damaging Winds, and Large Hail, and those threats will extend on through Sunday, and maybe beyond.

Let's Go Day-by-Day
Below, we're going to show you Friday and Saturday in decent detail (thank you Storm Prediction Center), with a high-level look for Sunday & Monday. This will be a quick and picturesque update!

NOTE: You can click any of the images below to go to the SPC's website for a better view.

FRIDAY

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Friday is slated for a Moderate Risk (red area in the top image), with a High chance (purple area in bottom image) for Significant Severe Weather (black outlined / hatched area in bottom image).

NOTE: Significant Severe area indicates that any Severe Weather in that area is to be "of significance". Since that's rather vague, here's what that means... Any of the 3 types of Severe Weather experienced is forecast to be more severe than average. Specifically, that means Tornadoes of EF2 or greater magnitude, 2" or larger Hail stones, and Damaging Winds of Hurricane speed (74mph / Gale force) or higher.

This is a pretty serious setup for South Central & South Western KS, along with most of Western & Central OK. Some risk extensds in to TX, AR, CO, and MO, with very some Non-Severe Storms possible in outlying areas (MRGL [Marginal] green area in top image).

SATURDAY

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Similar to the images for Friday, Saturday has essentially the same threats continue. The storms are a  bit more refined in that it has more of the traditional "bow" look to them. With more structure, typically higher risk. We'd be surprised if the top image doesn't get upgraded to a High Risk in one or two places instead of just Moderate Risk. Also continued in the bottom image is the black outlined / hatched area that denotes Significant Severe conditions.

SUNDAY & MONDAY

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Sunday's image is on top, while Monday's image is on bottom. At this point in the life cycle of the Storm Complex, conditions look like they should be weakening. If not weakening, the confidence for more Severe Weather is just lower at this time. The Yellow area indicates a 15% risk for Severe Weather though, so for anyone out East coming back to the Kansas City area, you'll want to take note of these areas. Typically, if any Severe Weather is going to occur, it will be in the PM hours, so plan accordingly.

Storm Chasing
Our team plans on going out Saturday, and potentially Sunday. Further updates will probably be very limited at best, so be sure to take today's information in and update it with more personalized means as needed: Apps, Local News, NWS Websites, Text Alerts, Weather Radios

The next few days look rough, which is why we're going to be out and about, but we want you to have the best heads up before this holiday weekend possible. If you and your family have some time, be sure to swing by the blog page here to see if we're Live Streaming our chases this weekend! We wish your Mom, and all the 'moms' in your life all the best. Have a good weekend, and as always....

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

First Spring Chase of 2015

In Case You Missed It
Last Friday: Twisted Skies' founder, Justin, took a long drive through parts of Kansas while trying to chase down some Thunderstorms. While it didn't do much in Kansas City, there were a few cells that were quite Severe out West. Storms produced large Hail and even some Tornadoes!

Unfortunately, Justin wasn't able to get a visual on the Tornadoes, despite being just a few miles away. The Tornadoes were almost entirely rain-wrapped, which is a very dangerous situation for Chasers. But not to be completely down and out, he was able to Live Stream quite a bit of his afternoon journey over on Severe Studios (http://severestudios.com/livechase). He also caught some Digital Pictures on camera, and a pretty nice Video of a Thunderstorm on a GoPro HERO3+ Black Edition.

Here's an assortment of what he collected...

Copyright: Twisted Skies (Justin Gann), 2015 | Photo taken near Great Bend, KS 04/24/2015

Copyright: Twisted Skies (Justin Gann), 2015 | Photo taken near Great Bend, KS 04/24/2015

Copyright: Twisted Skies (Justin Gann), 2015

NOTE: Be sure to go full screen with the video for the best playback experience.

And for fun, why not a GIF? The Internet is full of them, so this is our contribution.

That's it this time around. Be sure to watch our Social Media pages (Facebook & Twitter) for the next time we're out chasing! We'll always try to Live Stream on chase days, typically in the afternoon when the action picks up. As a final note, we should *hopefully* be able to record our Live Stream next time out, so we don't have to rely on the short battery life of the GoPro for our only source of after-action video uploads.

Until next time...

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

The First Big Weather Day

As Promised... an Update for just Today
At the time writing began on this latest update, Thunder can be heard in the distance and a few counties in the area are already seeing Severe Thunderstorm Watches & Warnings. If that's not a wake up call, we're not sure what is.

As with ALL weather, there's a chance for less and a chance for more than what is being forecast. But we hope that this information helps you make the best safety decisions for you, your family, your coworkers, your friends, etc. Let's jump right in with the information; this will be quick.

Today's Severe Weather Outlook (of Any Kind)

Image Credit: National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) (@NWSSPC) | Day 1 Categorical Outlook for 04/08/15

Today's Tornado Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 1 Tornado Outlook for 04/08/15

Today's Damaging Wind Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 1 Damaging Wind Outlook for 04/08/15

Today's Large Hail Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 1 Large Hail Outlook for 04/08/15

As the graphics above indicate, the Kansas City area is looking at an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather overall. In that Enhanced Risk zone, there is a Slight chance of seeing a Significant Tornado, a Slight chance for Damaging Winds, and a Moderate chance for Significant Damaging Hail. The term "Significant" indicates that, should that type of Weather actually produce, it will be generally carry more impact that 'average' Severe Weather of that type.

Please stay tuned to the NWS Kansas City office throughout the day as conditions could develop very rapidly, and may leave little time for any protective action. Today could turn on a dime, so we can't stress enough that being Weather Aware will make a big difference for some in the NWS KC forecast area. We will do our best to keep our respective social media pages (Twisted Skies & Kansas City Regional SKYWARN) updated, but we will try.

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

... in Partnership with ...

Kansas City Regional SKYWARN

Twitter | KCRegionSKYWARN
Facebook | KansasCityRegionalSKYWARN

Severe Weather Update 2

Another Day, Another Update
Good afternoon, everyone. It's time for another briefing on what's going on with our regional Weather. We'll break it down by days just like before.

Tuesday 04/07/15
In case you were unaware, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has updated the Categorical Outlook. With those changes, there are a couple of small patches that don't really affect our forecast area. However, there's a chance that the more Southerly patch of Slight chance for Severe Weather could trickle Northward toward us. Regardless of the Slight risk zone to our South, we're still under a Marginal threat of seeing Thunderstorms (likely non-severe). Here's a look

Image Credit: National Weather Service SPC (@NWS SPC) | Day 1 Categorical Outlook

Wednesday 04/08/15
This is still the big day to be watching. We're over 24 hours out until potentially big weather, and the SPC has updated the Categorical & Probabilistic graphics for Wednesday. Damaging Winds & Large Hail are the big threats, but with a Significant Severe area (black hatched area) highlighted in the Probabilistic Outlook, we would not be surprised for some isolated strong Tornadoes.

There's also quite a large zone under the Moderate risk zone, as well as the Slight risk zone. Please take a few minutes to check out these graphics, as there's a very broad risk for nasty Weather on the horizon. Please, we really are urging people to make sure they are every bit Weather Aware all day tomorrow.

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 2 Categorical Outlook

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook

Thursday 04/09/15
It's looking like only the very Eastern side of our forecast area is slated for any Severe Weather on Thursday afternoon. However, the early AM hours of Thursday could see the remnants of whatever moves through on Wednesday. If you happen to be traveling out toward St. Louis though, you might see a repeat of Wednesday's Weather.

Image Credit: NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) | Day 3 Categorical Outlook

A Final Note
Tomorrow, we intend to put out a morning update solely for the purposes of discussing the day's events. Please be sure to check that out, as it will be pretty time-sensitive. It's supposed to be a very active day, and so will we.

Speaking of which, for any Amateur Radio folks out there, you should tune into the SKYWARN frequencies in your area tomorrow if there area any repeaters near you! Additionally, you can also check out the often-used SKYWARN simplex frequency, 146.550 Mhz.

If you have any questions about Weather Apps / how to set them up or Weather Radios / how to program them, let us know today. We'll do what we can to answer your questions

TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com
KCRegionalSKYWARN@gmail.com

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

... in Partnership with ...

Kansas City Regional SKYWARN

Twitter | KCRegionSKYWARN
Facebook | KansasCityRegionalSKYWARN

Severe Weather Update 1

A Very Dynamic Setup!
As we discussed in yesterday's blog post, this week has many factors at play. With that, things will change. And to be honest, they already have to some extent. This will be a quick & graphic-heavy update highlighting those changes so that you're as up to date as we are.

Let's get to it.

Monday 04/06/2015
Though previously not "on the radar" (yes, a terrible weather joke), there is a slim possibility for much of the National Weather Service (NWS) Kansas City forecast area to see Strong Thunderstorms late this afternoon into the nighttime hours. Be sure to check out the Review information below for what constitutes a "Strong" Thunderstorm.

Quick Review: Thunderstorm Classifications

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity)

Today/Tonight Thunderstorm Outlook

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity)

Wednesday 04/08/2015
Much of the information we covered in yesterday's blog in regards to Wednesday has remained relatively the same. However, there's a little better gauge on the timing. As it stands right now, most of Wednesday's action will be limited to the later afternoon, and even more likely will be an overnight event.

If this system sets up to play out overnight, that becomes a fairly dangerous situation. Spotters and Chasers are almost entirely unable to visually confirm a Tornado is on the ground, thus potentially cutting down on the lead time the NWS has to issue Warnings. That's not to say Warnings won't happen, but having Spotters & Chasers on the ground can help improve that lead time since the NWS is solely reliant upon their Radar to detect Tornado signatures, and that sometimes takes minutes.

Fortunately for our forecast area, there will be quite a bit of Warm Air aloft, thus creating a Cap. That Cap might hold some Storm formation at bay. Specifically, it appears that South Central & Central Kansas are the more likely areas to see Tornadic Supercells.

Please understand, we don't want to make it sound like there's no chance for the Kansas City area to see Tornadoes and Severe Weather, nor are we trying to sound like Doom-Sayers! Simply, this weather is a fair amount more dependent upon the Cap than previously thought, but if Storms develop, Wednesday afternoon & overnight could still be dangerous.

Here's how Cap and Thunderstorms Work

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity)

Wednesday's Outlook

Image Credit: Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

Thursday 04/09/2015
Thursday has changed the most considerable amount, but is extremely dependent upon how things pan out Wednesday. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has moved the Slight and Moderate risk areas away from most of the NWS KC forecast area. There is still a chance that those areas could be shifted back Westward (more into the NWS KC forecast area).

Thursday's Outlook

Image Credit: Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

Until the Next Update...
That's all the current changes for now, but let's recap. Tonight (Monday, 4/6) there's a chance for Strong Thunderstorms, primarily in the overnight hours. Wednesday (4/8) still looks like it could be a nasty day with all forms of Severe Weather (Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Tornadoes) from afternoon into the night. Thursday (4/9) looks like things will have moved out of our area, but it's entirely up to Wednesday's Weather.

Now you're informed, but be sure to stay tuned. We'll continue to update this as things continue to come together.

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam

... in Partnership with ...

Kansas City Regional SKYWARN

Twitter | KCRegionSKYWARN
Facebook | KansasCityRegionalSKYWARN

Strong to Severe Weather Ahead

Attention Weather Enthusiasts
This is a very important blog update, so please take the time to read through it entirely. At the time of writing, there's a growing likelihood of a Severe Weather Outbreak on Wednesday 4/8/15 and Thursday 4/9/15. As always this information is subject to change, but this threat has already been on the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) and National Weather Service (NWS) Kansas City's minds the last few days, which says something about this particular Weather setup. Please be sure to stay vigilant about these 2 days coming up.

Some Technical Details
Typically on this blog, we work to make the information more generalized for easy reading, but I feel compelled to quote a few things directly so that you, the people we're trying to help protect, get a feeling for exactly the kind of strong tone that the SPC and NWS offices are using to describe Wednesday & Thursday.

Storm Prediction Center - Mesoscale Discussion Quote
"DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
   SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 4 /WED 4-8/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK/ERN KS/MO.
    ALL MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
   AT LEAST HINTS OF A SUBTLE/EMBEDDED WAVE CROSSING THE REGION NEAR
   PEAK HEATING.  ATTM...EXPECT RESULTING UVV TO BE SUFFICIENT ATOP THE
   EWD-MIXING DRYLINE TO PERMIT CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...AND A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FLOW THAT VEERS
   SUBSTANTIALLY AND INCREASES STEADILY WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
   STORM COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15% PROBABILITY AREA ATTM --
   DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORM THAT
   DOES DEVELOP.

   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS -- BUT WITH GREATER
   UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AREA -- EXISTS DAY 5 /THU 4-9/.
   DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE KS/NEB/IA VICINITY AND ADVANCE
   OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL FACILITATE
   A BROAD ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...GIVEN THE MOIST/FAVORABLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED.  WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS COMPARED TO
   DAY 4 GIVEN PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INTO THE
   CENTRAL STATES...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED."

NWS Kansas City - Mesoscale Discussion Quote
"Wednesday: Both the Wed and Thu period present the greatest concern for severe weather at this time as a potent upper trough moves into the Central Plains, with height falls across the area. The frontal boundary will stall early Wednesday morning and lift northward as a warm front during the day. Moderate instability is expected to develop within the warm sector by late afternoon, with strengthening wind fields as the upper trough approaches. This spells a potentially volatile  environment for the area, if in fact this multi-day convective event evolves in this fashion. Models are somewhat consistent with the overall upper pattern and location of surface features, aiding in some confidence to the forecast. Also concerning is the strong convective signals generated by many model members during the late afternoon and evening across the CWA. With said environment, convection that develops would rapidly become severe, with all types of severe weather threats possible. This period will be critical to watch how the pattern and yet unresolved mesoscale details evolve in
the coming days.

Thursday: The upper trough finally moves into the Plains, with the Pacific front progressive in an eastward march. While deep layer shear will certainly support storm organization, uncertainty remains to the degree of destabilization that will be realized with anticipated overnight convection and/or convection forming early along the front in the highly forced/weakly-capped environment. Additionally, low-level direction shear will be much less on Thursday, with storm mode likely to be in a linear fashion with updraft seeding and strong forcing. Again, there are simply too mnay unknown mesoscale features to provide many intelligent details, but again some risk of severe weather will be possible, especially in the southeast half of the CWA that would see the front move through during the afternoon. Obviously any change in speed to the system will subsequently alter the frontal passage and area of concern. Coverage of convection on Thu is expected to be more widespread."

Hopefully,after reading the SPC and NWS Mesoscale discussions, though somewhat complicated, you can pick out the serious tone that both organizations already have (and have had!) for at least a couple of days now.

But Let's Not Forget the Graphics
So let's take a look at some pictures, because those always "say" a lot more than words.

These are some early runs of the chances of seeing significant Supercell development on Wednesday afternoon. The point here is to show how dynamic of an atmospheric setup we're looking at that day. There will be a lot of energy available for Supercell growth.

HIRES GFS (left) + HAZGFS | Supercell Composite model valid at 4PM on Wednesday, 04/08/2015

While this graphic doesn't look as threatening as the one above, it's important to note that this one denotes the forecasted area that may see a Significant Tornado (SIGTOR). A SIGTOR is typically anything expected to be in the EF2 or greater range.

HIRES GFS + HAZGFS | SIGTOR model valid on Wednesday at 4PM, 04/08/2015

Lastly, the graphic below has 2 different looks. The left shows the Type of Supercell forecasted to develop; in this case High Precipitation (HP), meaning Tornadoes could very well be rain-wrapped and hard to visually detect. The right frame depicts Bulk Shear from 0-6KM up in the atmosphere. Shear helps dictate the strength of Storms, and this shows a wide area of 50 Knot and above Shear for our area. Again, this helps reiterate the idea of how dynamic this setup appears to be at this time.

HIRES GFS | Supercell Type Index + HAZGFS 0-6KM Bulk Shear, valid at 4PM Wednesday, 04/08/2015

Stay Tuned
Please be sure to stay on top of this with us. Have a Weather Plan for you and your family in place and practice it in the next couple of days. These types of Weather Systems can change very quickly, and when they become violent & damaging, there is very little time to react. Make sure you have a Weather Radio programmed, and that it has fresh batteries. Even with a Warning message, the average time people have to take shelter is only 10 minutes.

Whether you're reading this as Twisted Skies fan, or a follower of the Kansas City Regional SKYWARN, we just want everyone to be aware of this risk and to take it seriously. Keep your eyes on our pages, as well as the NWS KC pages. We'll do our best to keep everyone informed.

Stay safe out there,

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

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