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Thursday, January 22, 2015

Spotters, Radios, and Volunteerism; Oh My!

SPOTTER TRAINING

Hey weather followers! I know it's still technically Winter, but Spring and Summer are just around the corner. With Spring comes warmer weather, and with warmer weather comes, yep - you guessed it, Severe Weather season. Not to say Winter doesn't have its own hazards, but Spring and Summer can bring turbulent Straight-Line Winds, large Hail, powerful Flooding, and destructive Tornadoes. Do you know how to spot the warning signs?

If you don't (and I'll even say, if you do), then I highly recommend heading out to one of the nearby Spotter Training classes. These classes are totally FREE, informative, potentially life-saving, and in absolutely NO WAY does taking a class mean that you have to participate in SKYWARN or other "official" spotting duties. But, if you want to, then you've got the prerequisite training already out of the way!

NWS loves getting reports from trained Spotters. Our local NWS Kansas City office has someone that can answer the phones virtually 24/7, and they always need extra eyes and ears in the field, wherever they may be. So I challenge each of you to go to one of these Spotter training classes! Take the kids; tell grandma & grandpa about it; invite the Scout Troop; go as a church congregation, a work department, or any group you're involved with. The more you all know about protecting yourselves, the better you can take care of yourself, your team, and your loved ones.

Nearby & Upcoming Spotter Classes

- Johnson County, KS | January 26th, 7 PM, Performing Arts Center, Olathe Northwest High School, 21300 College Boulevard, Olathe, KS 66061
- Leavenworth County, KS | February 17th, 7 PM, Warren Middle School, 3501 New Lawrence Road Leavenworth, KS 66048
- Jackson County, MO | March 3rd, 7 PM, Crown Pointe Church, 5950 Northeast Lakewood Way, Lee's Summit, MO 64064
- Cass County, MO | March 4th, 7 PM, Eagle Glen Intermediate School 100 South Foxridge Dr., Raymore, MO 64083
- Platte County, MO | March 5th, 7 PM, Congress Middle School, 8150 N Congress Avenue, Kansas City, MO 64153
- Wyandotte County, KS | March 18th, 7 PM, Performing Arts Building, Kansas City Kansas Community College, 7250 State Avenue, Kansas City, KS 66112
- Clay County, MO | March 24th, 7 PM, Pleasant Valley Baptist Church, 1600 State Highway A, Liberty, MO 64068

Visit the NWS KC website for a full listing of classes between January 26th through March 30th:

AMATEUR RADIO & DISASTER PREPAREDNESS VOLUNTEERISM

Now, you didn't think I'd miss a recruiting opportunity did you?! Along with the Spotter training that NWS Kansas City is putting on, there's another kind of training that I want to make you all aware of... The Independence / Eastern Jackson County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has multiple volunteer groups that are always looking for more members to join their ranks. Depending on what group(s) you may decide to become involved with, Disaster Preparedness for All-Hazards is at their core.

The next training course the EOC has to offer is coming up very soon. This class is for anyone that wants to get their entry level into Amateur Radio, the Technician License. The 2-Day Class is held Saturday, January 31st & Sunday, February 1st from 8 AM - 6 PM at the EOC. The total cost is $40 which covers all training materials and the testing fee. To register, head to their Event Registration webpage to sign up. The address is 950 North Spring Street, Independence, MO 64050.

Please head over to www.indepmoep.org to look at what organizations there are to get involved with, and what their missions are. For specific questions, please e-mail the EOC's Public Information Office [SocialMedia@indepmoep.org] to get put in touch with the right person based on your interest(s).

I'd love to see more of my friends, followers, colleagues, and family members get involved with any / all of the things I've mentioned in this blog post. If you ever have a question about Weather, Amateur Radio or Disaster Preparedness, you can always chat me up in person, on the phone, through social media, or via e-mail.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

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Twitter | @JustinTGann
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Friday, January 2, 2015

A Bit of Wintry Mix

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Welcome to 2015, and our first Weather event of the year! Already, we're off to a rather unpredictable start. For the last week or so, we here at Twisted Skies have been looking at model data, and we still can't pinpoint exactly what's going to happen overnight through Sunday this weekend. Unfortunately, models for Winter Weather are not nearly as reliable as that for the rest of the year. Even though there's still some shadows of doubt, we still want to give you all the best guess we can.

Before we move on, here are the links for the latest Special Weather Statement & Hazardous Weather Outlook from our local NWS office.

LITERALLY UP IN THE AIR

"Why is this storm so hard to predict?" some of you may be asking. Well, that's complicated. In a nutshell though, it has to do with where the cold air is, and how high up that pocket is. Without drowning you all in geeky weather-speak, just know that with more cold air in place through more of the atmosphere, we'd see more snow; the opposite holds true if there were warmer air in the atmosphere. Thus, the odd scenario we're going to see play out over the next 48-72 hours.

OUR BEST GUESS

Overall, it seems likely that we're going to get some accumulation of Ice overnight tonight. The chances of precipitation start going up the close we get to midnight, so don't be surprised if things start getting slick several hours before then as the precipitation picks up. Though there is Snow expected on Saturday, everyone here at Twisted Skies is much more concerned with the potential travel impact that the preceding Ice will have.

!!! We urge you to be extremely cautious if you have to travel this weekend, especially during the transitional period before the Snow arrives. With the way the Wind Chills could setup, even treated roads can still Ice over. (NOTE: Most road treatments are only effective down to a certain temperature, based on the type used.) !!!

As for total Snow accumulations, it seems probable that we'll see at least 1"-2" for most of us, and probably closer to 3" (or more) the further North or South West of the metro you are (North Central Missouri, East Central Kansas). However, please take these estimates with a grain of salt or two. We're not going to dwell on every possibility, but just know that things can change. It's always better to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best anyway.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST

To better illustrate everything we've covered so far, here are some graphics.

The first image depicts the Temperature, Dewpoint, Wind Chill, Wind Gusts, Relative Humidity, Precipitation Potential, Sky Cover, Rain, Snow, and Freezing Rain chances. (Click it to go to the source for a better look.)
Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA
This second image shows the NAM 4KM run from 6 AM this morning and its best guess at what Snow Totals will look like between now and 6 PM Sunday, 01-04-15.
Image Credit: WeatherBell models
Lastly, here's a look at totals a little more locally, along with the Wind Chills that we'll see after the storm blows through. (Click on either graphic to see the whole PDF with full details.)
Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA
Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA

WRAP UP

That's it for us. Be sure to pay extra attention on the roads this weekend, starting this evening. Get your car's gas tank topped off, find your gloves, ice scraper, hat, scarf, heavy coat, and your emergency kit for your vehicle.

We'll keep you posted of any major changes, but be sure to watch local news for up to the minute information. Our team also recommends checking KCScout.com for major roadway updates.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann