Remembering D-Day: Meteorologist Gives Allies the Advantage

"OK, we'll go."
This phrase was solemnly spoken by General Dwight Eisenhower on this very day, 73 years ago. A phrase as iconic as should be the forecast given by Group Captain, James Martin Stagg (RAF), Chief Meteorologist to Gen. Eisenhower. This forecast being the key to the decision on when to execute Operation Neptune, an assault on Normandy's beaches now known in history textbooks as D-Day.

What Almost Was
While June 6th is synonymous with D-Day, some might not realize that it almost wasn't. June 5th, according to military operations records, was originally planned to be the date for which the Allied troops were destined to make landfall in Normandy to being their counter-invasion. Unfortunately for the Allies, Mother Nature was busy throwing a wrench in things out in the Atlantic.

A vast line of storms squandered plans for the Allies to make it to Normandy early June 5th. With little more than surface observations from civilians, a few Allied ships, and other meteorologists on hand, the Allies had none of the luxuries we take for granted these days. Digital models, high definition satellite imagery, real-time communications, dual-polarization radar; none of which existed in 1944. Fortunately, one gentleman named James Stagg had the wherewithal to ask for a delay in the Normandy invasion. Stagg had an incredibly difficult task in front of him - figuring out when Allied forces could launch.

Stagg faced much criticism from several meteorologists that insisted the invasion continue as planned. If it had, though, the waters in the English channel very likely would have lead to the sinking of many ships in the Allied fleet, costing the lives of thousands of soldiers, and wasting literal tons of resources, vehicles, and ammunition. The cost of which very well may have cost the Allies the war.

Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed, and Gen. Eisenhower gave the command to wait until June 6th to see if conditions held up, a decision that rested very heavily upon Stagg's forecast.

73 years ago today: A break in the #weather allowed the United States to commence the #DDay invasion. pic.twitter.com/q5ADzqfrJR

— The Storm Report (@thestormreport) June 6, 2017

A Narrow Window of Opportunity
Stagg continued to collect as much information as he could through June 5th, settling on a final conclusion that the storms were going to push off to the southeast. His forecast gave the Allies a narrow margin to begin their assault on the beaches of Normandy. This narrow window of opportunity, under moonlight, between waves of stormy activity, and enough cloud clearing to allow aerial and bombing support, was exactly what the Allies needed and hoped for. Gen. Eisenhower issued his command to the Allied troops in waiting. Operation Neptune was finally starting.

#DDay depended on moonlight, tides, weather. The forecast predicted a break in storms June 6. Eisenhower's order: https://t.co/HaUpT7IV18 pic.twitter.com/rXidueBT7C

— OurPresidents (@OurPresidents) June 6, 2017

"The tide has turned," Indeed
Just after midnight on June 6th, 1944, before the amphibious assault landed, some 24,000 Allied U.S., British, and Canadian airborne troops hit the ground just behind the German beachhead locations. By 6:30 AM that same morning, Allied armored divisions began to make landfall along a 50 mile stretch of beaches, divided into 5 sectors known as Utah, Omaha, Juno, Gold, and Sword.

Fighting was extremely intense at Omaha beach, with German casualties across all 5 sectors estimated between 4000 - 9000, and Allied casualties estimated around 10,000. By June 12th, the Allies had pushed far enough to link all 5 sectors by clearing the heavy gun emplacements and German troops through specialized tanks, bombing, artillery strikes, hand-to-hand combat, sniper fire, beach-clearing units, and of course, the forecast that allowed the allies to arrive undetected.

"They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate." President Roosevelt, June 6, 1944 #DDay pic.twitter.com/0HG5jJZ6GJ

— WeatherBug (@WeatherBug) June 6, 2017

Let it not be unsaid that weather, and those that grapple with forecasting it, played a vital role in aiding the Allied troops to what became one of the biggest game-changers in much of the European theater of engagement during World War II. Thank you, to ALL that served, and all that currently are serving to keep us safe from those that would do us harm.

--

Twisted Skies Chase Team

Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property

Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx

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Winter Storm Jupiter

Crunch Time
Alright, folks, listen up. We're skipping the humor and getting down to brass tacks on this blog update. Things are looking like they will get nasty this weekend, so now is the time to figure out your plan for dealing with it. Things are still subject to change, which isn't news to anyone that's read our blog before, but we want you to have a good idea of what to expect

Our Thoughts
Friday will bring the first round of Freezing Rain, expanding from South of the KC area Northward. Eventually, we should see a break on Saturday for a while, and then Freezing Rain will pick back up later on Saturday on through Sunday. The tricky detail is going to be when/if the temperature rises above Freezing on Sunday. It looks like it'll be afternoon or later. The rub? The longer temps stay below Freezing on Sunday, the more Ice we'll see accumulate, taking us from a bad scenario to a near-2002 Ice Storm scenario.

Specifics
Friday

Image: NWS Kansas City

Saturday

Sunday

Monday Total Ice Accumulations by Sunday Night

Image: HazWx.com

Synopsis
Our local National Weather Service Office has been updating their thoughts on this weekend's Winter Storm. Here's the latest from them.
"Confidence continues to grow that a major winter storm will impact the lower Missouri valley this coming weekend. The potential exists for significant icing across the area, as a freezing rain falls from Friday afternoon through Sunday. This storm system will lead to very dangerous travel conditions, along with the possibility of downed tree limbs and possible power outages. Freezing rain should gradually come to an end on Sunday as warm air returns from the South."

How Freezing Precipitation Works

Image: NWS St. Louis

With the image above, you can see how the differing layers of Warm and Cold air from the ground up make a big difference in how precipitation hits the ground. Essentially, the more cold air, the more freezing can take place with the liquid. We're going to see pretty warm air aloft over the weekend, and a strong but thinner layer of cold air toward the ground.

Winter Safety Tips
- Get prepared BEFORE the precipitation begins to fall.
- Prepare your vehicle: Include some sand or kitty litter, ice melt, an ice scraper, a flashlight, some food & water, and a change of dry clothes (gloves, scarf, sox, shoes, pants, layers, sweater, etc).
- If you have a truck, put sandbags over the rear axle to provide extra traction.
- Have something to cover your windshield: Cardboard or a Tarp with straps works well.
- Test your battery backups and generators. Make sure generators have enough fuel.
- Never run fuel-based heaters indoors as that can be very deadly to breathe in the fumes.
- Prepare for power outages.
- Don't crowd the plows.
- Charge up your batteries (cell phones, battery backups, medical supply batteries, etc)
- Withdraw cash to have on you in case ATM's are unavailable or Credit/Debit machines are inoperable.
- Bring your pets inside.
- Listen to local officials for information regarding emergencies.

Take Action
Get prepared. Don't wait until Friday! It might not be as bad as it looks, and that would be great for reasons we don't need to explain. However, it could also be worse than anticipated as well. Please be safe, stay warm, and make sure you pay attention to updated forecast and emergency information.

Questions? Pictures? Drop us a line or chat us up on Social Media.

Stay safe out there,

--

Twisted Skies Chase Team

Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property

Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx

Instagram | @twisted_skies_wx

Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
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Winter Arrival

Hey everyone!

WOW, has it been a long time since you've heard from us or what? It's been a hectic year, and fortunately for most of you, not a very weather-active one. That, however, appears to be changing as we hit Winter full-stride.

Let's get to the 4 Day Forecast:

Friday

Cloudy. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle through early afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night

Cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle through the night. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle early in the morning. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Saturday

Cloudy. Chance of freezing rain possibly mixed with snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 20s. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening. Much colder. Dangerously cold wind chills. Lows around 3 below. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Wind chill readings 10 below to 20 below zero after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny...frigid. Highs around 13. Wind chill readings 15 below to 20 below zero in the morning.

Sunday Night

Clear...frigid. Lows around 2. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero after midnight.

Monday And Monday Night

Clear. Bitterly cold. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows 2 to 16. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero.

Enjoy that? We do! Let's talk Friday, though, real quick. Freezing Drizzle is a threat. It might not sound that bad, but just enough freezing drizzle is enough to make roads treacherous, especially so early on in the season, when people are getting used to driving in Wintry conditions again. 

Please be very careful on Friday with any precipitation. Slow down, turn your headlights on, leave extra space between you and the cars in front of you, and allow extra drive time.

But let's get a bit more excited about that four-letter word we all love; SNOW. The Ensemble run thinks we'll average a little under 2" total accumulation with this batch.

​It might be hard to see, but that thick black line is the average of all the model runs, and it runs just underneath the 2" line. That yellow line way up there is well over 1 foot though! Obviously an outlier, but some models are quite a bit more "blizzard" feeling. Here's the High Res GFS run.

Yikes. That's a HUGE difference! The dark purples are a bit over 9"...

Do we think we'll see that much Snow? No. BUT it's interesting to see that Kansas City is pretty much in the bulls-eye. That means that confidence is high that KC will be seeing at least some snow. Currently, we're thinking 3" would be a pretty high yield for this upcoming accumulation. Lesser amounts are expected widespread.

Here's some great Winter Weather Safety graphics I will leave you with. These are awesome infographics to help you remember how to get geared up for Winter AND be safe about it!

Staying Warm Indoors

Vehicle Winter Weather Preparedness

Home Winter Weather Preparedness

Pet Winter Weather Safety

That's all we've got right now! Be wary on Friday for that Freezing Drizzle, Saturday for Snow, and Sunday for extreme cold Wind Chills, down to -20°F.

Stay safe out there,

--

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Instagram | @twisted_skies_wx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

Active Work Week Weather

Definitely A Week To Watch The Weather
If you've missed it, we're going to have "one of those weeks", weather-wise. Monday through Sunday, all days are slated to have some varying potential for Severe Weather here around the KC Metro and the local region. Not only will it be Stormy, but it'll be fairly warm and feeling a bit like early Summer. What a nice way to head into the long holiday weekend!

What We're Working With
Let's just jump right into the graphics, and then we'll discuss them frame-by-frame afterward, shall we?
 
DAY 1 Categorical Outlook for 05-23-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 2 Categorical Outlook for 05-24-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 2 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-24-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 3 Categorical Outlook for 05-25-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 4 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-26-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 5 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-27-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Keep An Eye To The Sky
Monday | 40% chance of Showers, probably nothing very Strong, 15-20 mph Winds, High upper 70s, Low mid 60s.
Tuesday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, 25mph Gusts, High lower 80s, Low upper 60s.
Wednesday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, 10-15 mph Winds, High mid 80s, Low near 70°.
Thursday | 60% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, High mid 80s, Low mid 60s.
Friday | 50% chance of Thunderstorms, mostly Strong but maybe some Severe, High upper 70s, Low lower 60s.
Saturday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, High near 80°.
Sunday | 30% chance of Thunderstorms, High lower 80s.

Overall, Tuesday through Thursday look to be the better chances for Severe Weather (at this time), but it'll be worth staying up to date through the week as things may change. Just be sure you've got your umbrella with you!

Also, if you have to drive with your Wipers on, your Headlights better be on too. I can't tell you how many times we see people driving in the rain without their lights on, which is dangerous to themselves and everyone else around them.

As Always...
Stay on top of tomorrow's Weather by whatever means you can!
 - Keep your phone charged, make sure you have the Weather Emergency Alert (WEA) option enabled, and maybe consider downloading / configuring an app to keep you notified that way.
 - If you have a Weather Radio, make sure it is set to receive NOAA alerts. Don't have one? You really should. They're about $30 at Wal-Mart.
 - Follow along with your favorite local News Station through the day. Things will change, and they'll be all over letting you know what's up.
 - Ask us questions via Facebook and Twitter! We have a pretty good response time, just don't expect it to be immediate, especially if a big storm is bearing down on us while we're in the field chasing.
 - Plan ahead. None of this should take you by surprise. Be smart, be safe, do what you need to do ahead so you can simply act if you have to.

How to Find Us Online
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
SoundCloud
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014


Stay safe out there,

Potentially High Impact Tuesday

If Tomorrow Surprises You, There Is No Excuse
Yes, that's the tone we're taking today. We, National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, and local Meteorologists have been pumping Social Media and the airwaves full of "heads up" messages. While we understand that the Kansas City Metro is in a Slight Risk zone and Enhanced Risk zone on Tuesday, the Moderate Risk zone is only about 60-65 miles West of that.

This is not a message to make you panic. This is a serious message about taking Weather Awareness seriously. Days like this are uncommon at best, especially so close to home. So let's take a look at the current setup together and make this setup easy to understand so you can know what to expect.

SPC Day 2 Categorical Outlook for Tuesday, 04/26/16

Image Credit: NWS Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook for Tuesday, 04/26/16

Image Credit: NWS Storm Prediction Center

So What?
The key takeaway from these graphics is where that Black Hatched area is setup. Notice that it's right on the border with where the Enhanced Risk is setup? That means with just a tiny shift Eastward, that Significant / Black Hatched area would be over our area. It's very possible for a storm to maintain a long, damaging track with the way things are shaping up, and being only 60-65 miles from the Moderate Risk zone, it will be prudent to watch as things develop out West of Kansas City.

Things may change, Storms might not even be bad in Kansas City, but the potential is there. That's all we want to make you aware of. As for the timing, things look to fire up in Mid / Eastern Kansas in the middle of the afternoon, and slowly push East, with Thunderstorms arriving in the Metro late PM into the overnight hours.

What Are The Threats?
As NWS SPC listed "All Modes of Severe Weather" are expected. That means Heavy Rains, Damaging Winds, Hail (including Large Hail), and Tornadoes are possible with Tuesday's setup. That means there could also come Flash Flooding and generalized Flooding with some of the projected rainfall amounts.

As Always...
Stay on top of tomorrow's Weather by whatever means you can!
 - Keep your phone charged, make sure you have the Weather Emergency Alert (WEA) option enabled, and maybe consider downloading / configuring an app to keep you notified that way.
 - If you have a Weather Radio, make sure it is set to receive NOAA alerts. Don't have one? You really should. They're about $30 at Wal-Mart.
 - Follow along with your favorite local News Station through the day. Things will change, and they'll be all over letting you know what's up.
 - Ask us questions via Facebook and Twitter! We have a pretty good response time, just don't expect it to be immediate, especially if a big storm is bearing down on us while we're in the field chasing.
 - Plan ahead. None of this should take you by surprise. Be smart, be safe, do what you need to do ahead so you can simply act if you have to.

How to Find Us Online
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Now Is The Time To Get Weather Aware

Possible Severe Weather Outbreak
First and foremost, my team really uses the term "outbreak" with extreme caution. We know it's a word that carries a lot of weight behind it. To that end, we are not trying to generate hype or drama or fear just to get people to read this.

As with anything in Weather, things may change and we might see very little. But like always, our Team stands behind the idea of preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best. Let's get down to business.

Multiple Days of Weather
Diving right in, our first chance of Severe Weather is going to happen on Sunday. This is already looking to be a linear setup, which means our chances of Wind and Hail are the primary threats, with some localized very heavy Rains, and maybe a Tornado here and there if there's enough energy to support it. This is the kind of thing we usually see around here, lines of storms that sweep through our area. Here's Sunday's outlook.

NWS SPC Day 3 Categorical Outlook - Posted on April 22nd, 2016

Image Credit: NWS SPC

The next shot of Severe Weather is slated for late Tuesday on into Wednesday. It's looking like it may be kind of an overnight setup, which makes things a little more hectic. Just be sure you have your NOAA Weather Radio or Smart Phone set to audibly alert you to Weather Warnings.

Tuesday / Wednesday looks to considerably less linear, and much more conducive to Supercells. That means that storms will be in clusters instead of a line, and can potentially produce more Severe Weather than a Squall Line. Supercells often have larger hail, and are better able to setup for Tornadoes. Heavy Rains and Damaging Winds (not just Tornadic) are still very much threats with this type of Storm. Here's the setup for Tuesday / Wednesday.

NWS SPC Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook - Posted April 22nd, 2016

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Be sure to stay tuned, as we expect the finite details to start filling in pretty soon, especially for Sunday. We will try to collect information from good sources to share with you. We'll use information from local TV stations, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, proven Chasers & Chase Teams, anything that is relevant to the Weather that may impact our area. Hopefully you will use us as a centralized Weather 'information hub'!

In case you didn't know, you can find us on the web in several different places. Bookmark'em all!
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

If you have any questions at all, please don't hesitate to contact us. We want you to have the information you need to make the best and safest decisions for you and your family.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Very Dynamic Weather Day

First Bit of Severe Weather Action in 2016
If you've not been paying attention to the other things we've said on Social Media, parts of the Kansas City metro are looking at the potential for some Severe Thunderstorms, including Damaging Winds, Hail, and maybe a couple of Tornadoes!

Most of the threat will remain north of the metro proper, but things can change. Here's the current Outlook information from NWS Storm Prediction Center...

Categorical Outlook


 Tornado Outlook


 Wind Outlook


Hail Outlook


Wild Swings
Even though our temps will reach near 80° during the day, we'll get down into the Mid 30s or so overnight tonight. A few chances of flurries are possible if there's still moisture in the air. Thursday will be quite a bit colder than today. If you're a Green Thumb, cover your plants as soon as you get home tonight.

That's about the long and the short of it. Be ready for about 3 seasons worth of weather in the next 12 hours! Just be sure to watch our Twitter & Facebook feeds for up-to-date information. We also might try to stream on Periscope, which should save over on Katch for anyone that misses the live broadcasts. Lastly, we also may try to enable our Live Stream over on SevereStudios.com.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies