Final Update for this Wintry Weekend

Alrighty folks,

Sorry I'm a little later than I anticipated! Looks like we're not going to get a very solid answer, as is the case most of the time for Winter Weather forecasting. However, here's how things are trending in the world of forecast models.

Quick Technical Note: All images & any captions should now be clickable links to take you to the page source. I know this Blog sometimes shrinks pictures & text down a little small to be able to see everything. Hope that helps going forward!

Local Meteorologists sometimes just don't agree...

KMBC Chief Meteorologist is thinking about 2" will stick for most of the KC Metro

41 Action News Chief Meteorologist Gary Lezak thinks we'll see > 1" of Snow for most of the KC Metro

Joe Lauria of FOX 4 KC seems to think we're in the < 1" of Snow boat as well

So now that we have that confusion out of the way, let's move on to the next set of data from the National Weather Service office for Kansas City. According to their 4 AM update this morning, they believe a lot of folks in the KC Metro will be seeing between 1" - 2".

"Snow will accumulate on roadways making them slick. Slid-Offs and Accidents can be expected."

The Median of the Plume Models has us slated for about 1.5" of total accumulated Snow

And now a look from HazWx's website.

LEFT: NCEP GFS 00Z model run (11/15) for Snow total accumulations through 12 AM Monday, 11/17/2014
RIGHT: NAM 4KM 00Z model run (11/15) for Snow total accumulations through 12 AM Monday, 11/17/2014

Lastly, all the updated model runs from WeatherBELL all agree that we're dodging most of the bullet on this one. Here's one of the 3 nearly identical models from their site.

This is WeatherBELL's (WxBell) NAM 4KM 00Z Run, which matches their other products almost identically (NCEP GFS and NAM 12KM)

That's it for now! Just be sure to be cautions while you're out driving this weekend. Little snow or not, any precipitation on the road is likely to be near or below Freezing. Headlights on, seatbelts buckled, windows scraped... you guys know the drill.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography

A Quick Update that Most People will Like (But not Me!)

Super quick update that I won't bother scrubbing up with graphics: Models have all made a drastic shift showing that the segments of tomorrow's Snow should split around us by quite a distance to the North & South.

In a nutshell, if these newer models hold up, it certainly seems like we'll be at or below 1" of total accumulated Snow.

Will this come to fruition? I'll post one last thorough update before 9 AM tomorrow. We'll see what all the sources say!

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer
Santa Fe Neighborhood #17
Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Photography

Wintry Weekend Weather Update

It's about time for another Weather update on what's supposedly going on this weekend.

The quick summary is that in the last couple model runs have whittle down snow chances a bit. With that, almost the entirety of Snow Accumulation is expected to happen Saturday instead of through the duration of the whole weekend.

Instead of 3", the median of the Plume runs are guessing about 2.5" when all is said and done.

Snow Accumulation Plume Modeling through 6 PM on Monday, 11/17/2014

In addition, our local National Weather Service (NWS) office's 48-Hour Forecast lines up with this very nicely. Some additional good news for those of you that very much dislike Wintry Weather, there's not anything in the forecast for Ice or Sleet accumulations, which is not to say there won't be some icy patches on roads & sidewalks. NOTE: Hard-packed snow can be just as dangerously slick as ice.

48-Hour Forecast from 2 PM 11/14/2014 to 1 PM 11/16/2014

Ahead of this Storm System, NWS Kansas City has issued a Winter Weather Advisory that you should check out. They have also published an updated Decision Support Page product highlighting Snow Accumulations across the region.

I won't bore you today with the NCEP GFS & NAM forecasts since they all relay about the same information, but keep an eye out for one more update tomorrow morning!.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE

Twisted Skies Chase Team

Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer

Santa Fe Neighborhood #17

Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann

Twitter | @JustinTGann

Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Twisted Skies Photography

Good afternoon folks,

I'll try to be brief, but the graphics might make this look really long. Biggest changes so far; National Weather Service Kansas City has updated our estimated total accumulations for the area. As it stands, they're thinking that we're going to see in the range of 2"-3" with some very isolated spots closer to 4".

Here's a clickable Hour-by-Hour Snow Total that KMBC (Channel 9) posted a little while earlier today, just click the arrows to the right of the current image to scroll forward into time.

Next up is the overview forecast for the next handful of days:

• Rest Of Today
  Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
• Tonight
  Mostly clear. Lows around 14. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.
• Friday
  Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds.
• Friday Night
  Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Temperatures steady after midnight. Light and variable winds.
• Saturday
  Cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Moderate snow accumulations. Highs around 30. Temperatures steady in the afternoon. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
• Saturday Night
  Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows around 20.
• Sunday
  Considerable cloudiness in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s.
• Sunday Night
  Partly cloudy. Lows around 15.
• Monday Through Tuesday
  Mostly clear. Bitterly cold. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows around 8.

Next, some graphics from the NWS KC Decision Support Page (also attached as a PDF with full details.

Expected Snow Totals through Sunday

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Expected Snow Chances on Saturday

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48-Hour Forecast Data from 12 AM Saturday through 11 PM Sunday

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Snow Plume Modeling through Noon on Sunday

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HazWx: NCEP GFS Model for Estimated Snow Totals through 6PM Sunday

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​WxBell: NCEP Hi Res GFS Estimated Snow Totals through 6PM Sunday

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If you take nothing else away from this update, take this... Current models have been ramping up the total accumulations ever so slightly each run, but it still looks like, from my estimates, most of the KC Metro & surrounding areas (50 mile radius) should see about 3" of Snow by the end of Sunday.

As always, if things change, I'll be sure to let you know. Stay tuned!

--

Justin Gann - KDØWNE

Twisted Skies Chase Team

Founder & Lead Chaser

Public Safety Officer

Santa Fe Neighborhood #17

Independence, MO

G+ | +JustinGann

Twitter | @JustinTGann

Facebook | Justin.T.Gann

Twisted Skies Photography