This phrase was solemnly spoken by General Dwight Eisenhower on this very day, 73 years ago. A phrase as iconic as should be the forecast given by Group Captain, James Martin Stagg (RAF), Chief Meteorologist to Gen. Eisenhower. This forecast being the key to the decision on when to execute Operation Neptune, an assault on Normandy's beaches now known in history textbooks as D-Day.
What Almost Was
While June 6th is synonymous with D-Day, some might not realize that it almost wasn't. June 5th, according to military operations records, was originally planned to be the date for which the Allied troops were destined to make landfall in Normandy to being their counter-invasion. Unfortunately for the Allies, Mother Nature was busy throwing a wrench in things out in the Atlantic.
A vast line of storms squandered plans for the Allies to make it to Normandy early June 5th. With little more than surface observations from civilians, a few Allied ships, and other meteorologists on hand, the Allies had none of the luxuries we take for granted these days. Digital models, high definition satellite imagery, real-time communications, dual-polarization radar; none of which existed in 1944. Fortunately, one gentleman named James Stagg had the wherewithal to ask for a delay in the Normandy invasion. Stagg had an incredibly difficult task in front of him - figuring out when Allied forces could launch.
Stagg faced much criticism from several meteorologists that insisted the invasion continue as planned. If it had, though, the waters in the English channel very likely would have lead to the sinking of many ships in the Allied fleet, costing the lives of thousands of soldiers, and wasting literal tons of resources, vehicles, and ammunition. The cost of which very well may have cost the Allies the war.
Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed, and Gen. Eisenhower gave the command to wait until June 6th to see if conditions held up, a decision that rested very heavily upon Stagg's forecast.
73 years ago today: A break in the #weather allowed the United States to commence the #DDay invasion. pic.twitter.com/q5ADzqfrJR— The Storm Report (@thestormreport) June 6, 2017
A Narrow Window of Opportunity
Stagg continued to collect as much information as he could through June 5th, settling on a final conclusion that the storms were going to push off to the southeast. His forecast gave the Allies a narrow margin to begin their assault on the beaches of Normandy. This narrow window of opportunity, under moonlight, between waves of stormy activity, and enough cloud clearing to allow aerial and bombing support, was exactly what the Allies needed and hoped for. Gen. Eisenhower issued his command to the Allied troops in waiting. Operation Neptune was finally starting.
#DDay depended on moonlight, tides, weather. The forecast predicted a break in storms June 6. Eisenhower's order: https://t.co/HaUpT7IV18 pic.twitter.com/rXidueBT7C— OurPresidents (@OurPresidents) June 6, 2017
"The tide has turned," Indeed
Just after midnight on June 6th, 1944, before the amphibious assault landed, some 24,000 Allied U.S., British, and Canadian airborne troops hit the ground just behind the German beachhead locations. By 6:30 AM that same morning, Allied armored divisions began to make landfall along a 50 mile stretch of beaches, divided into 5 sectors known as Utah, Omaha, Juno, Gold, and Sword.
Fighting was extremely intense at Omaha beach, with German casualties across all 5 sectors estimated between 4000 - 9000, and Allied casualties estimated around 10,000. By June 12th, the Allies had pushed far enough to link all 5 sectors by clearing the heavy gun emplacements and German troops through specialized tanks, bombing, artillery strikes, hand-to-hand combat, sniper fire, beach-clearing units, and of course, the forecast that allowed the allies to arrive undetected.
"They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate." President Roosevelt, June 6, 1944 #DDay pic.twitter.com/0HG5jJZ6GJ— WeatherBug (@WeatherBug) June 6, 2017
Let it not be unsaid that weather, and those that grapple with forecasting it, played a vital role in aiding the Allied troops to what became one of the biggest game-changers in much of the European theater of engagement during World War II. Thank you, to ALL that served, and all that currently are serving to keep us safe from those that would do us harm.
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Twisted Skies Chase Team
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