Winter Arrival

Hey everyone!

WOW, has it been a long time since you've heard from us or what? It's been a hectic year, and fortunately for most of you, not a very weather-active one. That, however, appears to be changing as we hit Winter full-stride.

Let's get to the 4 Day Forecast:

Friday

Cloudy. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle through early afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night

Cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle through the night. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle early in the morning. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Saturday

Cloudy. Chance of freezing rain possibly mixed with snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 20s. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening. Much colder. Dangerously cold wind chills. Lows around 3 below. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Wind chill readings 10 below to 20 below zero after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny...frigid. Highs around 13. Wind chill readings 15 below to 20 below zero in the morning.

Sunday Night

Clear...frigid. Lows around 2. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero after midnight.

Monday And Monday Night

Clear. Bitterly cold. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows 2 to 16. Wind chill readings 5 below to 10 below zero.

Enjoy that? We do! Let's talk Friday, though, real quick. Freezing Drizzle is a threat. It might not sound that bad, but just enough freezing drizzle is enough to make roads treacherous, especially so early on in the season, when people are getting used to driving in Wintry conditions again. 

Please be very careful on Friday with any precipitation. Slow down, turn your headlights on, leave extra space between you and the cars in front of you, and allow extra drive time.

But let's get a bit more excited about that four-letter word we all love; SNOW. The Ensemble run thinks we'll average a little under 2" total accumulation with this batch.

​It might be hard to see, but that thick black line is the average of all the model runs, and it runs just underneath the 2" line. That yellow line way up there is well over 1 foot though! Obviously an outlier, but some models are quite a bit more "blizzard" feeling. Here's the High Res GFS run.

Yikes. That's a HUGE difference! The dark purples are a bit over 9"...

Do we think we'll see that much Snow? No. BUT it's interesting to see that Kansas City is pretty much in the bulls-eye. That means that confidence is high that KC will be seeing at least some snow. Currently, we're thinking 3" would be a pretty high yield for this upcoming accumulation. Lesser amounts are expected widespread.

Here's some great Winter Weather Safety graphics I will leave you with. These are awesome infographics to help you remember how to get geared up for Winter AND be safe about it!

Staying Warm Indoors

Vehicle Winter Weather Preparedness

Home Winter Weather Preparedness

Pet Winter Weather Safety

That's all we've got right now! Be wary on Friday for that Freezing Drizzle, Saturday for Snow, and Sunday for extreme cold Wind Chills, down to -20°F.

Stay safe out there,

--

Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Instagram | @twisted_skies_wx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies

Active Work Week Weather

Definitely A Week To Watch The Weather
If you've missed it, we're going to have "one of those weeks", weather-wise. Monday through Sunday, all days are slated to have some varying potential for Severe Weather here around the KC Metro and the local region. Not only will it be Stormy, but it'll be fairly warm and feeling a bit like early Summer. What a nice way to head into the long holiday weekend!

What We're Working With
Let's just jump right into the graphics, and then we'll discuss them frame-by-frame afterward, shall we?
 
DAY 1 Categorical Outlook for 05-23-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 2 Categorical Outlook for 05-24-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 2 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-24-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 3 Categorical Outlook for 05-25-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 4 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-26-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

DAY 5 Probabilistic Outlook for 05-27-16

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Keep An Eye To The Sky
Monday | 40% chance of Showers, probably nothing very Strong, 15-20 mph Winds, High upper 70s, Low mid 60s.
Tuesday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, 25mph Gusts, High lower 80s, Low upper 60s.
Wednesday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, 10-15 mph Winds, High mid 80s, Low near 70°.
Thursday | 60% chance of Thunderstorms, some Strong to Severe, High mid 80s, Low mid 60s.
Friday | 50% chance of Thunderstorms, mostly Strong but maybe some Severe, High upper 70s, Low lower 60s.
Saturday | 40% chance of Thunderstorms, High near 80°.
Sunday | 30% chance of Thunderstorms, High lower 80s.

Overall, Tuesday through Thursday look to be the better chances for Severe Weather (at this time), but it'll be worth staying up to date through the week as things may change. Just be sure you've got your umbrella with you!

Also, if you have to drive with your Wipers on, your Headlights better be on too. I can't tell you how many times we see people driving in the rain without their lights on, which is dangerous to themselves and everyone else around them.

As Always...
Stay on top of tomorrow's Weather by whatever means you can!
 - Keep your phone charged, make sure you have the Weather Emergency Alert (WEA) option enabled, and maybe consider downloading / configuring an app to keep you notified that way.
 - If you have a Weather Radio, make sure it is set to receive NOAA alerts. Don't have one? You really should. They're about $30 at Wal-Mart.
 - Follow along with your favorite local News Station through the day. Things will change, and they'll be all over letting you know what's up.
 - Ask us questions via Facebook and Twitter! We have a pretty good response time, just don't expect it to be immediate, especially if a big storm is bearing down on us while we're in the field chasing.
 - Plan ahead. None of this should take you by surprise. Be smart, be safe, do what you need to do ahead so you can simply act if you have to.

How to Find Us Online
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
SoundCloud
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014


Stay safe out there,

Potentially High Impact Tuesday

If Tomorrow Surprises You, There Is No Excuse
Yes, that's the tone we're taking today. We, National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, and local Meteorologists have been pumping Social Media and the airwaves full of "heads up" messages. While we understand that the Kansas City Metro is in a Slight Risk zone and Enhanced Risk zone on Tuesday, the Moderate Risk zone is only about 60-65 miles West of that.

This is not a message to make you panic. This is a serious message about taking Weather Awareness seriously. Days like this are uncommon at best, especially so close to home. So let's take a look at the current setup together and make this setup easy to understand so you can know what to expect.

SPC Day 2 Categorical Outlook for Tuesday, 04/26/16

Image Credit: NWS Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook for Tuesday, 04/26/16

Image Credit: NWS Storm Prediction Center

So What?
The key takeaway from these graphics is where that Black Hatched area is setup. Notice that it's right on the border with where the Enhanced Risk is setup? That means with just a tiny shift Eastward, that Significant / Black Hatched area would be over our area. It's very possible for a storm to maintain a long, damaging track with the way things are shaping up, and being only 60-65 miles from the Moderate Risk zone, it will be prudent to watch as things develop out West of Kansas City.

Things may change, Storms might not even be bad in Kansas City, but the potential is there. That's all we want to make you aware of. As for the timing, things look to fire up in Mid / Eastern Kansas in the middle of the afternoon, and slowly push East, with Thunderstorms arriving in the Metro late PM into the overnight hours.

What Are The Threats?
As NWS SPC listed "All Modes of Severe Weather" are expected. That means Heavy Rains, Damaging Winds, Hail (including Large Hail), and Tornadoes are possible with Tuesday's setup. That means there could also come Flash Flooding and generalized Flooding with some of the projected rainfall amounts.

As Always...
Stay on top of tomorrow's Weather by whatever means you can!
 - Keep your phone charged, make sure you have the Weather Emergency Alert (WEA) option enabled, and maybe consider downloading / configuring an app to keep you notified that way.
 - If you have a Weather Radio, make sure it is set to receive NOAA alerts. Don't have one? You really should. They're about $30 at Wal-Mart.
 - Follow along with your favorite local News Station through the day. Things will change, and they'll be all over letting you know what's up.
 - Ask us questions via Facebook and Twitter! We have a pretty good response time, just don't expect it to be immediate, especially if a big storm is bearing down on us while we're in the field chasing.
 - Plan ahead. None of this should take you by surprise. Be smart, be safe, do what you need to do ahead so you can simply act if you have to.

How to Find Us Online
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Now Is The Time To Get Weather Aware

Possible Severe Weather Outbreak
First and foremost, my team really uses the term "outbreak" with extreme caution. We know it's a word that carries a lot of weight behind it. To that end, we are not trying to generate hype or drama or fear just to get people to read this.

As with anything in Weather, things may change and we might see very little. But like always, our Team stands behind the idea of preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best. Let's get down to business.

Multiple Days of Weather
Diving right in, our first chance of Severe Weather is going to happen on Sunday. This is already looking to be a linear setup, which means our chances of Wind and Hail are the primary threats, with some localized very heavy Rains, and maybe a Tornado here and there if there's enough energy to support it. This is the kind of thing we usually see around here, lines of storms that sweep through our area. Here's Sunday's outlook.

NWS SPC Day 3 Categorical Outlook - Posted on April 22nd, 2016

Image Credit: NWS SPC

The next shot of Severe Weather is slated for late Tuesday on into Wednesday. It's looking like it may be kind of an overnight setup, which makes things a little more hectic. Just be sure you have your NOAA Weather Radio or Smart Phone set to audibly alert you to Weather Warnings.

Tuesday / Wednesday looks to considerably less linear, and much more conducive to Supercells. That means that storms will be in clusters instead of a line, and can potentially produce more Severe Weather than a Squall Line. Supercells often have larger hail, and are better able to setup for Tornadoes. Heavy Rains and Damaging Winds (not just Tornadic) are still very much threats with this type of Storm. Here's the setup for Tuesday / Wednesday.

NWS SPC Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook - Posted April 22nd, 2016

Image Credit: NWS SPC

Be sure to stay tuned, as we expect the finite details to start filling in pretty soon, especially for Sunday. We will try to collect information from good sources to share with you. We'll use information from local TV stations, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, proven Chasers & Chase Teams, anything that is relevant to the Weather that may impact our area. Hopefully you will use us as a centralized Weather 'information hub'!

In case you didn't know, you can find us on the web in several different places. Bookmark'em all!
This Blog
Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
Official [BETA] Website

You can also e-mail us directly.
TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com

And be sure to check for our Live Stream (listed as Justin Gann) and Videos.
Severe Studios Live Chase
YouTube

If you have any questions at all, please don't hesitate to contact us. We want you to have the information you need to make the best and safest decisions for you and your family.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Very Dynamic Weather Day

First Bit of Severe Weather Action in 2016
If you've not been paying attention to the other things we've said on Social Media, parts of the Kansas City metro are looking at the potential for some Severe Thunderstorms, including Damaging Winds, Hail, and maybe a couple of Tornadoes!

Most of the threat will remain north of the metro proper, but things can change. Here's the current Outlook information from NWS Storm Prediction Center...

Categorical Outlook


 Tornado Outlook


 Wind Outlook


Hail Outlook


Wild Swings
Even though our temps will reach near 80° during the day, we'll get down into the Mid 30s or so overnight tonight. A few chances of flurries are possible if there's still moisture in the air. Thursday will be quite a bit colder than today. If you're a Green Thumb, cover your plants as soon as you get home tonight.

That's about the long and the short of it. Be ready for about 3 seasons worth of weather in the next 12 hours! Just be sure to watch our Twitter & Facebook feeds for up-to-date information. We also might try to stream on Periscope, which should save over on Katch for anyone that misses the live broadcasts. Lastly, we also may try to enable our Live Stream over on SevereStudios.com.

Stay safe out there,

--
Justin Gann - Founder
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Ground Truth | To Protect Life & Property
Established October 2014

Twitter | @TwistedSkiesWx
Facebook | TwistedSkiesChaseTeam
YouTube | Twisted Skies