Before we jump into any updates, I want to reiterate that we are officially under a Winter Weather Advisory from NWS Kansas City until 9 AM tomorrow morning.
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| Image Credit: NOAA NWS Kansas City |
LOTS OF POSSIBILITIES
Alright everyone, today and tomorrow are the days we're supposed to definitely get a bit of snow. Unfortunately, the models are all over the place as to how much we're going go get, but I'll try to make some semblance of order as we go through this update. Hold on, though, as this post is going to be pretty graphic. What? I just mean lots of pictures!
Here's What We Know
It's pretty certain that, regardless of how much we do not know, we're going to get snow; period. Right now, I'd be willing to say with confidence that most of the Kansas City metro should see at least 1" of Snow, which is enough to put a little blanket of white on everything. Along with that, the timing of the Snow is likely going to be after 6 PM, and even more likely after 9 PM tonight. The snow looks like it should end by about day break tomorrow.
That means that the roads could be a bit of a mess if you're out driving tonight, and even more so for the AM commuters tomorrow. PLEASE, and I really mean this with sincerity, drive carefully. Turn your lights on, have your windows scraped completely (not just a little peep-hole) before pulling out of the driveway. Make sure you've got a little winter emergency kit in your car in case you get stranded / have an accident. Check that your de-icing / windshield washer fluid isn't too low.
And Here's What We Don't Know
Essentially, we just don't know how much will fall. As I alluded to earlier, the models just aren't playing nicely with each other. I wish I could be more accurate, but at that's how meteorology goes. For those of you that want to see just how different things are looking. So here's those graphics I promised.
The first 2 graphics are from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center depicting what they think our region's Snow accumulations look like over the next 24 Hours (6AM 12/17 - 6AM 12/18). The 3rd graphic is also from NOAA SPC, but is a Plume Graph showing all the model runs for Snow accumulation for Kansas City's immediate area.
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| Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center |
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| Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center |
The average model run is trending just over 3" of Snow accumulation. |
| Image Credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center |
NCEP GFS |
| Image Credit: WeatherBell.com |
NAM 12 KM |
| Image Credit: WeatherBell.com |
NAM 4 KM |
| Image Credit: WeatherBell.com |
If you're confused, don't worry! We know we're going to get snow. Count on it happening between sun-down and sun-up. Just make sure you have what you need, or get it on your drive home after work today. This isn't going to be a "Snowpocalypse", so relax! Here's some great driving tips from NWS Kansas City.
Questions / Comments / Concerns? Just let me know! If you're an e-mail subscriber, just reply to this e-mail; if you're on the Blog, you can comment below the article; or if you're on social media, comment as per that platform dictates.
Stay safe out there,
Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser
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