A Bit of Wintry Mix

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Welcome to 2015, and our first Weather event of the year! Already, we're off to a rather unpredictable start. For the last week or so, we here at Twisted Skies have been looking at model data, and we still can't pinpoint exactly what's going to happen overnight through Sunday this weekend. Unfortunately, models for Winter Weather are not nearly as reliable as that for the rest of the year. Even though there's still some shadows of doubt, we still want to give you all the best guess we can.

Before we move on, here are the links for the latest Special Weather Statement & Hazardous Weather Outlook from our local NWS office.

LITERALLY UP IN THE AIR

"Why is this storm so hard to predict?" some of you may be asking. Well, that's complicated. In a nutshell though, it has to do with where the cold air is, and how high up that pocket is. Without drowning you all in geeky weather-speak, just know that with more cold air in place through more of the atmosphere, we'd see more snow; the opposite holds true if there were warmer air in the atmosphere. Thus, the odd scenario we're going to see play out over the next 48-72 hours.

OUR BEST GUESS

Overall, it seems likely that we're going to get some accumulation of Ice overnight tonight. The chances of precipitation start going up the close we get to midnight, so don't be surprised if things start getting slick several hours before then as the precipitation picks up. Though there is Snow expected on Saturday, everyone here at Twisted Skies is much more concerned with the potential travel impact that the preceding Ice will have.

!!! We urge you to be extremely cautious if you have to travel this weekend, especially during the transitional period before the Snow arrives. With the way the Wind Chills could setup, even treated roads can still Ice over. (NOTE: Most road treatments are only effective down to a certain temperature, based on the type used.) !!!

As for total Snow accumulations, it seems probable that we'll see at least 1"-2" for most of us, and probably closer to 3" (or more) the further North or South West of the metro you are (North Central Missouri, East Central Kansas). However, please take these estimates with a grain of salt or two. We're not going to dwell on every possibility, but just know that things can change. It's always better to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best anyway.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST

To better illustrate everything we've covered so far, here are some graphics.

The first image depicts the Temperature, Dewpoint, Wind Chill, Wind Gusts, Relative Humidity, Precipitation Potential, Sky Cover, Rain, Snow, and Freezing Rain chances. (Click it to go to the source for a better look.)

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA

This second image shows the NAM 4KM run from 6 AM this morning and its best guess at what Snow Totals will look like between now and 6 PM Sunday, 01-04-15.

Image Credit: WeatherBell models

Lastly, here's a look at totals a little more locally, along with the Wind Chills that we'll see after the storm blows through. (Click on either graphic to see the whole PDF with full details.)

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA

Image Credit: NWS Kansas City / NOAA

WRAP UP

That's it for us. Be sure to pay extra attention on the roads this weekend, starting this evening. Get your car's gas tank topped off, find your gloves, ice scraper, hat, scarf, heavy coat, and your emergency kit for your vehicle.

We'll keep you posted of any major changes, but be sure to watch local news for up to the minute information. Our team also recommends checking KCScout.com for major roadway updates.

Stay safe out there,

Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser

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