What We're Thinking
The short version is that we think there's going to be +2" to the North of I-70, with some spots seeing 3". A Dusting to 1" is expected South of I-70. For some locations, we aren't ruling out some pockets of higher accumulation amounts.
Timing
It's estimated that there will be a little Snowfall in the morning, but more than likely will be in the afternoon on into the night, eventually tapering off overnight. Please talk to your Teens that are of driving age, as they'll likely be getting out of school as the Snow is falling. And be sure you plan your evening commute back home accordingly! It's not likely to be a blizzard by any stretch, but we want people to be aware of the potential hazard of slick conditions and reduced visibility.
If you want to skip the explanation, scroll down to the "Some Models & Info" section of this article. But if you care to know our reasoning behind our thoughts, then please read on!
The Explanation
For you intrepid readers, our team is expecting the current forecasts to hold true... for the most part. As with all Weather, there's a metric ton of factors at play. To keep things simple, let's just look at a couple of aspects.
1) The Surface Temperature
Most of the models are within just a couple of degrees, and all are far enough under 32°, we're not too worried about any melting. It's going to be cold enough, for long enough, that we don't expect today's High temps to play into tomorrow's precipitation. What that means is, anything that falls is likely to stick. Since most of the models we're seeing are so close together, here's a quick look at the Euro model for Noon on Wednesday.
Most of the models are within just a couple of degrees, and all are far enough under 32°, we're not too worried about any melting. It's going to be cold enough, for long enough, that we don't expect today's High temps to play into tomorrow's precipitation. What that means is, anything that falls is likely to stick. Since most of the models we're seeing are so close together, here's a quick look at the Euro model for Noon on Wednesday.
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| Image Credit: EuroWX.com 12Z Run on 02/03/15 for Noon on 02/04/15 |
The high-contrast area just North of the dotted line (35°), where the darker blue and the lighter green meet; that's the Freezing Line at the Surface of the earth. That means, we'll be well into the Freezing temps, even at one of the warmer parts of the day on Wednesday. That brings us to our next point...
2) Temperature, and How that affects the Mixing Ratio
If you're feeling a little like a deer in the headlights right now, I understand. We're going to try to break this down for you, but buckle up! There's a thing called the Bergeron Process where, based on the amount of Water Vapor in the air, and the Temperature & Pressure in the atmosphere surrounding that Water Vapor, there's ways to calculate how much Snow might form. Stay with me for a second here. That amount of snow is depicted as a ratio. And that ratio is based on Inches of Snow to Inches of Rain (assuming that the snow were to fall as rain instead). So, in a nutshell, this whole process is how scientists / meteorologists figure out how much Snow a storm is going to spit out.
The Problem
Since most models that are available to non-meteorologists (like our team members) are only for one particular Snow:Rain ratio (almost always 10:1), those models don't always accurately depict a Snow Storm's actual Mixing Ratio. With all these Weather factors at play, a higher or lower Mixing Ratio directly impacts the amount of Snow that falls from the sky.
Since most models that are available to non-meteorologists (like our team members) are only for one particular Snow:Rain ratio (almost always 10:1), those models don't always accurately depict a Snow Storm's actual Mixing Ratio. With all these Weather factors at play, a higher or lower Mixing Ratio directly impacts the amount of Snow that falls from the sky.
This is why our Snow totals have been so low this year. We have had Storm systems come through, but because it wasn't freezing, all that moisture fell as Rain before it could convert over to Snow. Lack of moisture once the Temps get to the Freezing point, the less Vapor is available to convert to Snow.
Some Models & Info
Here is a look at what the most recent model runs are showing us.
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| Image Credit: WxBell.com. NCEP GFS 12Z Run on 02/03/15 of 10:1 Snow through Noon on 02/04/15 |
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| Image Credit: WxBell.com. NAM12K 12Z Run on 02/03/15 of 10:1 Snow through Noon on 02/04/15 |
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| Image Credit: WxBell.com. NAM4K Run on 02/03/15 of 10:1 Snow through Noon on 02/04/15 |
Notice how those show us a little closer to the 1" - 2" range? Our team still thinks we'll see a bit more than what these images are showing because we feel they don't fully take into account the proper Mixing Ratio. The NWS forecast looks to do a bit better job (below).
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| Image Credit: NOAA / NWS Kansas City |
But hey, things can & likely will change! Stay tuned. We'll do a much shorter update as the newer models come in through the next 24 hours. Please do NOT hesitate to reach out to us if you have specific questions. We will do our best to get the information that impacts you and your family as quickly as possible. E-mail us at: TwistedSkiesChaseTeam@gmail.com
Stay safe out there,
Justin Gann - KDØWNE
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser
G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
Twisted Skies Chase Team
Founder & Lead Chaser
G+ | +JustinGann
Twitter | @JustinTGann
Facebook | Justin.T.Gann
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