As we discussed in yesterday's blog post, this week has many factors at play. With that, things will change. And to be honest, they already have to some extent. This will be a quick & graphic-heavy update highlighting those changes so that you're as up to date as we are.
Let's get to it.
Monday 04/06/2015
Though previously not "on the radar" (yes, a terrible weather joke), there is a slim possibility for much of the National Weather Service (NWS) Kansas City forecast area to see Strong Thunderstorms late this afternoon into the nighttime hours. Be sure to check out the Review information below for what constitutes a "Strong" Thunderstorm.
Quick Review: Thunderstorm Classifications
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| Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) |
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| Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) |
Wednesday 04/08/2015
Much of the information we covered in yesterday's blog in regards to Wednesday has remained relatively the same. However, there's a little better gauge on the timing. As it stands right now, most of Wednesday's action will be limited to the later afternoon, and even more likely will be an overnight event.
If this system sets up to play out overnight, that becomes a fairly dangerous situation. Spotters and Chasers are almost entirely unable to visually confirm a Tornado is on the ground, thus potentially cutting down on the lead time the NWS has to issue Warnings. That's not to say Warnings won't happen, but having Spotters & Chasers on the ground can help improve that lead time since the NWS is solely reliant upon their Radar to detect Tornado signatures, and that sometimes takes minutes.
Fortunately for our forecast area, there will be quite a bit of Warm Air aloft, thus creating a Cap. That Cap might hold some Storm formation at bay. Specifically, it appears that South Central & Central Kansas are the more likely areas to see Tornadic Supercells.
Please understand, we don't want to make it sound like there's no chance for the Kansas City area to see Tornadoes and Severe Weather, nor are we trying to sound like Doom-Sayers! Simply, this weather is a fair amount more dependent upon the Cap than previously thought, but if Storms develop, Wednesday afternoon & overnight could still be dangerous.
Here's how Cap and Thunderstorms Work
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| Image Credit: NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) |
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| Image Credit: Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) |
Thursday has changed the most considerable amount, but is extremely dependent upon how things pan out Wednesday. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has moved the Slight and Moderate risk areas away from most of the NWS KC forecast area. There is still a chance that those areas could be shifted back Westward (more into the NWS KC forecast area).
Thursday's Outlook
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| Image Credit: Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) |
That's all the current changes for now, but let's recap. Tonight (Monday, 4/6) there's a chance for Strong Thunderstorms, primarily in the overnight hours. Wednesday (4/8) still looks like it could be a nasty day with all forms of Severe Weather (Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Tornadoes) from afternoon into the night. Thursday (4/9) looks like things will have moved out of our area, but it's entirely up to Wednesday's Weather.
Now you're informed, but be sure to stay tuned. We'll continue to update this as things continue to come together.
Stay safe out there,
Twisted Skies Chase Team
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